Viewers of the 60 Minutes broadcast The Ethanol Solution were introduced to Professor Daniel M. Kammen, founding director of U.C. Berkeley's Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL).
Readers of the BioConversion Blog may recall an article he wrote in April called Achieving Energy Autonomy
Konrad Imielinski of GoG2G; Converting Green to Green Blog sent several questions to Professor Kammen this month. He treats us to a startling assessment of the potential speed of change between the oil and ethanol energy paradigms.
Konrad Imielinski: Which technology has the biggest chance to replace oil eventually? Some say, that ethanol is still a short term solution and that hydrogen has the true long term potential, what is your comment on this?.
Professor Kammen: No! Corn-ethanol may be a short-term solution - i.e., a transitional mechanism to get us to ethanol - but since corn-based ethanol is not a winner on a greenhouse gas basis (while cellulosic ethanol is), that is where we want to end up. A cellulosic-ethanol industry could, we estimate, make up 1/3 – 1/2 of our total gasoline use over time, and more if plug-in hybrids running on ethanol are part of the mix. We have details on this online at: ERG Biofuel Analysis Meta-Model (EBAMM).
KI: What is your prediction in five years from now: would E85 have significant portion of the fuel market in US? How much?
PK: I’d say in 2-4 years E85 will be 15% of US transport fuels
technorati 60 Minutes, Kammen, RAEL, ethanol, investment, cellulosic