The Impact on Renewable Energy from Obama's Nominations

"Who ARE those guys?"

The bad news is that the economic crisis threatens to suspend deployment of renewable energy facilities. Coupled with the meteoric drop in fossil fuel prices - one of the key drivers for developing alternative fuels - and it would not be surprising to see a new administration lose focus on renewable energy.

The good news is that the incoming Obama administration's choices for Cabinet and key positions are very encouraging to those in the emerging renewable energy and energy efficiency industries. Below is the full "Special Report" analysis on each nominee as reported by 25x'25 dated 12/31/08.

The one disappointment is the loss of Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico who was nominated to be Secretary of Commerce. Just yesterday he opted out of confirmation because of government investigation of some alleged "pay for play" campaign contributions.

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Obama Nominations Expected to Drive Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency Policy

President-elect Barack Obama has moved quickly to fill his Cabinet and most key positions in an administration set to take control of the White House in three weeks, and a significant number of the nominees or appointees bring with them serious renewable energy and energy efficiency credentials. Obama's selection of scientific, energy and environmental experts to his administration underscore his campaign pledge to address the faltering economy and climate change with programs that will use green technology and infrastructure improvements to create jobs and boost markets.

The diversity and bipartisan nature of the new administration team mirror the similarly wide-ranging composition of the National 25x'25 Renewable Energy Alliance, whose member organizations come from the agriculture, forestry, energy, environmental, business, labor, civic and government sectors. Five of the 14 Cabinet nominees have over the past two years formally endorsed the 25x'25 Vision for a renewable energy future. Obama was an original co-sponsor of the 25x'25 resolution adopted by Congress in 2007 as part of the Energy Independence and Security Act signed into law a year ago. Members of the bipartisan team that Obama has picked include what some analysts have deemed to be "superstars" in their fields.

Steven Chu, the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory since 2004 and a Nobel Prize-winning physicist, represents a key appointment for renewable energy interests with his nomination to head the Department of Energy. Chu is a champion of second-generation biofuels and solar technologies, focusing the Berkeley lab's scientific resources on energy security and global climate change, in particular the production of new fuels and electricity from sunlight through non-food plant materials and artificial photosynthesis. The lab director, who has shared his research at a 25x'25 roundtable in California in 2007 and at the National 25x'25 Summit in Omaha in March, has also spearheaded significant work at Berkeley on energy-efficient technologies.

Tom Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa and another champion of land-based renewable energy development, is Obama's nominee for Secretary of Agriculture. One of the early endorser's of the 25x'25 Vision, the two-term governor vigorously campaigned for Obama, promoting their common ideas on renewable energy and rural growth. "As governor of one of our most abundant farm states, he led with vision, fostering an agricultural economy of the future that not only grows the food we eat but the energy we use," Obama said in nominating Vilsack. The former chairman of the Governors' Biofuels Coalition has pushed for further development of cellulosic ethanol, in which products such as woodchips and switchgrass are used as feedstocks, and promoted wind energy as an alternative source of electricity.

Sen. Ken Salazar, an original co-sponsor of the 25x'25 resolution adopted by Congress, is the nominee to head the Interior Department. As a member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the second-term senator from Colorado says he "will do all I can to help reduce America's dangerous dependence on foreign oil" and work with Obama "as we take the moon shot on energy independence. That energy imperative will create jobs here in America, protect our national security, and confront the dangers of global warming." Salazar also said he wants to help "build our clean energy economy, modernize our interstate electrical grid, and ensure that we are making wise use of our conventional natural resources, including coal, oil, and natural gas."

Rep. Ray LaHood, a supporter of mass transit, is set to lead the Transportation Department in the new administration. As a co-sponsor in the House of the 25x'25 resolution ultimately enacted into the 2007 Energy Act, the Illinois lawmaker voted for legislation that would have eliminated tax breaks for oil and gas companies and diverted them to the development of renewable fuels. LaHood also voted for an amendment to the National Science Foundation funding bill that created a K-12 curriculum on global warming, climate change, and the actions people can take to lower greenhouse gas emissions. The six-term congressman Ray LaHood was recently honored for his work in promoting Illinois' 25x25 Renewable Energy Alliance during a special ceremony in Peoria last month. Former U.S. and Illinois House Representative Tom Ewing, a member of the National 25x'25 Steering committee and coordinator of Illinois' 25x25 efforts, joined other Illinois 25x'25 alliance members in presenting an award of appreciation to LaHood. "Ray LaHood has been a real champion of the 25x25 movement since we started it in 2004," said Ewing, speaking at the Illinois Commodity Classic conference in Bloomington. "He was a supporter of our independent resolution in Congress recognizing our goal of producing 25 percent of the nation's energy from renewable sources - including agricultural sources - by the year 2525."

Senator from New York and former Obama political adversary Hillary Clinton was nominated by the president-elect as Secretary of State. Sen. Clinton is a member of the Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works and a co-sponsor of the 25x'25 resolution. She was a strong supporter of renewable energy provisions in the 2007 Energy Act. Her advocacy of measures that would stem climate change is expected to be carried into the international arena. Also expected to play a part in Clinton's approach to her role as Secretary of State is her support as a senator of policies to diversify energy supplies by investing in renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar, and her promotion of the environmentally responsible recovery of oil and gas resources. She also championed energy-efficiency in cars, homes, and offices.

Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, one of the first national political leaders to embrace the 25x'25 Vision when the campaign was launched in 2006, was nominated to be Secretary of Health and Human Services. The secretary-designate has long promoted the clean air benefits of renewable energy and is expected to tout the health advantages inherent to improved air quality as the Obama administration develops energy policies that reduce polluting emissions. With more than 25 years of service in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and 10 years as Senate Democratic Leader, Daschle has played an instrumental role in the development of U.S. legislative and regulatory policy. He brings to the incoming administration extensive Washington experience and high odds for quick Senate confirmation. The former South Dakota senator, who lost his bid for re-election in 2004, has been serving as a member of the Energy Future Coalition national Steering Committee and a ''special public policy adviser'' with the Washington law and lobbying firm of Alston & Bird. His portfolio there includes health care and renewable energy.

Rep. Hilda L. Solis, a green jobs advocate and author of clean energy job training legislation included in the 2007 energy bill, has been nominated to head the Labor Department. Her legislation authorizes up to $125 million in funding to establish national and state job training programs, administered by the Department of Labor, to help address job shortages that are impairing growth in green industries, such as energy efficient buildings and construction, renewable electric power, energy efficient vehicles, and biofuels development. H.R. 2847 was included in the Energy Independence and Security Act adopted by Congress and signed into law in December, 2007.

Other key members of the incoming administration announced by Obama that are expected to have significant impact on renewable energy and energy efficiency policies include:

• Lisa Jackson, who is set to head the EPA. The agency regulates the nation's renewable fuel standard, which determines how much ethanol, biodiesel and eventually other biofuels get used each year. Rules currently under formulation would determine the extent to which land use and the effect of biofuel production on climate change are to be considered in setting the RFS. Jackson was the director of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection before being tapped to head Obama's energy and environment transition team. She had previously served as DEP Deputy Commissioner. Her past experience includes management responsibilities at the EPA's regional office in New York; for enforcement programs at both EPA and DEP; and for New Jersey's Land Use Management Program. Jackson helped create the Northeastern states' Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and also served as vice president of the RGGI's executive board. She is a professional engineer.

• Carol M. Browner, who has been named to the new position of Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change. Her position has been coined as "climate czar" and Obama says she will coordinate environmental, energy, climate and related matters for the federal government. The former chief at EPA during the Clinton administration, Browner is a founding member of the Albright Group, a "global strategy group" headed by former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. As a principal in the firm, Browner assists businesses and other organizations with the challenges of operating internationally, including the challenges of complying with environmental regulations and climate change.

• Nancy Sutley, who will chair the White House Council on Environmental Quality. She has instituted a number of energy saving programs in Los Angeles where she currently serves as the Deputy Mayor for Energy and Environment. She has previously served as a gubernatorial energy advisor and the Deputy Secretary for Policy and Intergovernmental Relations within the California Environmental Protection Agency. During the Clinton administration, Sutley was a Senior Policy Advisor to the Regional Administrator for EPA, Region 9 in San Francisco and a Special Assistant to the Administrator at the Federal EPA in Washington, DC. Sutley has also served as the Policy Director for the National Independent Energy Producers and as an Industry Economist for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

• John P. Holdren, who was named Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. A Harvard professor of environmental policy, Holdren led major studies for the Clinton administration's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology on U.S. energy research and development strategy. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Council on Foreign Relations. Since 2002, he has been Co-Chair of the independent, bipartisan National Commission on Energy Policy, and from 2004 to the present he has served as a coordinating lead author of the Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, reporting to the U.N.'s Department of Economic and Social Affairs and the Commission on Sustainable Development.

National 25x'25 Alliance leaders say stronger support for renewable energy within the incoming administration will help mobilize the 25x'25 base in 2009 and expand grassroots support for the policies needed to create a clean and green U.S. energy future. An alliance plan of action for next year notes that over the past four years, the 25x'25 Alliance has evolved into a strong coalition that now serves as providers of solid, credible information on the role renewable energy can and will play in a revived economy. "We believe that in 2009, the new administration, in concert with the incoming 111th Congress, will support our efforts to sustain the nation's resource base and protect the environment through renewable energy development and energy efficiency," says Project Coordinator Ernie Shea. "The Steering Committee believes our new national leadership understands the role agriculture and forestry can play in improving energy security, boosting our economy and reducing emissions that contribute to global warming."

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technorati BIOconversion, bioenergy, biofuels, ethanol, legislation, decentralization, security

Responses to Time's unbalanced biofuels bashing

The April 7th issue of Time Magazine features a cover story that attacks the biofuels industry in general and corn ethanol in particular.

I have written about irresponsible media attacks before (i.e., Rolling Stone Magazine's The Ethanol Scam) and when the Science magazine "Land Use Change" research article started being trumpeted in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal I even organized two Bioenergy and Communications side events at the Washington International Renewable Energy Conference. The plague of headline seeking writers to play gotcha journalism with incredibly important technological developments knows no bounds. What is surprising is the desperation with which "responsible" media grab and attempt to parlay slanted research into public lynchings.

My personal response to Time's "Inbox" was a brief rewriting of their cover headline (vainly hoping they would actually print it without butchering it too badly):

There are plenty of Clean Energy Myths but I think Time magazine has been duped. The cover story subhead should have read: "Mainstream Media and Big Oil are bashing biofuels like corn-based ethanol as alternatives to oil. In addition to driving up food prices and making global warming worse they are paving the way for future energy resource wars like Iraq - and you're paying for it."

The paradigm shift from fossil to renewable liquid fuels is imperative. We need alternatives at the pump and ethanol is already contributing as a clean oxygenate alternative to toxic MTBE's. Meanwhile biofuel feedstocks are shifting from cultivated food crops to greenhouse gas producing environmental disaster debris like landfills; knocked-down, bug-infested, and fire-ravaged forests; toxic waste dumps; and disease-infested marshlands. Leaders in government, environmental groups, private industry, and academia are working together to create ecologically and economically sustainable solutions. Why don't your writers do something constructive, rather than sensational, and report on those efforts?

Other, more reasoned responses have been issued by 25x'25 and the Ethanol Promotion Information Council (EPIC)...

April 2, 2008
25x'25 Responds to Time Magazine Biofuels Article with Letter to the Editor
by Congressman Thomas W. Ewing

Responding to widespread inaccuracies in this week's Time magazine cover story, the 25x'25 National Steering Committee is responding with a letter to the editors of Time expressing disappointment with the questionable characterization of biofuels and their role in the issue of greenhouse gas emissions in "The Clean Energy Scam," by Michael Grunwald. The letter was authored by steering committee member and former Congressman Thomas W. Ewing, who is also the Immediate Past Chairman of the USDA and DOE Biomass Research and Development Technical Advisory Committee. The entire letter follows:

As a former Member of Congress and a leader in a diverse alliance of agricultural, environmental and conservation organizations working together to advance clean energy solutions, I am greatly disturbed with Time magazine's April 7th feature story on biofuels. In this article, Michael Grunwald criticizes biofuels yet offers no alternative to using petroleum to meet our energy needs - much of which comes from the Middle East.

Members of our alliance share the author's anxiety for the continued health of the Amazon rain forest and other "carbon sinks" that nature has provided around the globe. As champions of many forms of land-based renewable energy (biomass, wind energy, solar power, geothermal energy and hydropower, in addition to biofuels), we agree that environmentally sensitive lands should not be exploited in pursuit of renewable fuels.

Unfortunately, the story's message of concern is undermined by misinformation about biofuels and an over-simplified analysis of complex systems. The implication that biofuel production is responsible for the destruction of the Amazon rain forest ignores the reality that ever increasing worldwide demand for food and fiber is the primary cause of land use change in this and other regions. Simply eliminating biofuels will not stop land use changes from occurring, and in countries like Haiti that have already lost their forests, biofuels could help reestablish forests and offer more affordable and sustainable energy options. Similarly, information in the story about a recent study, which claims land-use changes brought about by increased biofuel production are producing more greenhouse gas emissions (Searchinger et al.), only tells half the story. What is missing is that Searchinger's methodologies have been widely questioned by respected biofuel life-cycle analysis researchers such as Michael Wang, with the Center for Transportation Research at the Argonne National Laboratory, who counter that Searchinger et al. used outdated, if not incorrect, data to reach their conclusions.

The story's reference to a UN food expert's dramatic condemnation of biofuel production fails to mention that the UN Food and Agriculture Organization almost immediately distanced itself from the remarks. The head of the UN Food Program recently noted that higher energy costs, erratic weather and low stocks are big factors contributing to the high cost of food around the globe.

Of particular concern is the ready dismissal of emerging technologies that will allow us to produce next generation biofuels from non-food feedstocks sustainably grown on underutilized and marginal lands not suited for food production. Conservation tillage and other agriculture and forestry residue management practices used to produce biomass energy feedstocks can also provide a constant buildup of soil organic carbon. Researchers at Ohio State have concluded that the total potential of carbon sequestration in U.S. soils, counting croplands, grazing lands and woodlands, is nearly 600 million metric tons of carbon, or the equivalent of more than 2,200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions - about 33 percent of total U.S. emissions.

We encourage the editors of Time to contribute to a much-needed discussion of the role renewable resources will play in improving national security and the environment while moving us closer to energy independence. We simply ask that they demand a basic level of accuracy and balance from the stories that they run.

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EPIC's Executive Director Toni Nuerenberg response to Time article entitled "The Clean Energy Scam"

technorati BIOconversion, bioenergy, biofuels, ethanol

A four-star idea for rating biofuels

Any greenhouse gas cap and trade system for ethanol and other biofuels will be dependent upon an accurate assessment of its carbon footprint - not only the amount of carbon emitted to the atmosphere during usage but also the the carbon lifecycle of the fuel's production.

If coal is the fuel, the carbon emitted is not already part of the above ground carbon cycle and is therefore carbon positive. Plus it takes energy to mine, process, and deliver coal. At the other end of the spectrum, if hybrid poplars are the feedstock, not only are the emissions carbon neutral but the growing trees are effectively sequestering carbon dioxide (with a highly valued carbon negative impact). There are benefits to crops that do not need to be tilled, are perennial, or do not require fertilizers. There are benefits to conversion processes that do not require the use of fossil fuels or electricity.

Various groups are engaged in the task of coming up with a "green biofuels" rating system that incorporates the "global warming intensity" (GWI) of the fuel, a rating for the kind of feedstock being converted, and the use of fossil fuels in the conversion or refinery process. An excellent article written by Susanne Retka Schill for Ethanol Producer magazine reports on some of the more promising efforts to come up with a system sophisticated and reliable enough to provide industry benchmarks for setting caps and for trading credits. Concurrently, it must be simple enough for commercial and residental consumers to make informed buying decisions. The more comprehensive and comprehensible the system, the better the incentives will be to motivate change to renewable fuels.

Here is a small taste of what is contained in the published article...

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Developing a Biofuels Rating System

Producing four-star biofuels may give producers a leg up when the United States develops a carbon cap-and-trade system. Methods to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and rate biofuels are being proposed and tested in an attempt to incorporate the multiple facets of cropping systems, conversion processes and industry and consumer needs.
By Susanne Retka Schill


The chart shows how a Green Biofuels Index might work for different cropping scenarios and biofuels technologies. GWI is global warming intensity. The formula shown in the middle column generates the number value. One star is awarded for each 40 value units.

All biofuels are not created equal. Renewable fuels have different carbon footprints, depending on the feedstock that's used to produce it, how that feedstock was grown, how far it was transported and how it was converted to ethanol. Before ethanol producers can join cap-and-trade programs or sell offset credits on the Chicago Climate Exchange, the hurdle to quantify and express greenhouse gas performance must be cleared. Although there are several systems and models being developed, EPM talked to researchers involved in two projects that are tackling the challenge from different angles. One is focused on a biofuels rating system, the other models a life cycle assessment of biofuels to provide a glimpse of what the future may hold for biofuels marketing.

In the end, the winners in the greenhouse gas reduction comparisons aren't surprising, but the numerical values are interesting. Switchgrass and hybrid poplar energy crops transformed into biofuels provide the most greenhouse gas reductions when compared with gasoline and diesel, at about a 115 percent reduction, in the long term when soil carbon levels are at equilibrium and no longer sequestering additional amounts. Reed canary grass reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 85 percent. The different rotations and tillage systems for corn and soybean rotations reduced greenhouse gas emissions around 40 percent. These numbers compare with current analyses of the corn-to-ethanol production process showing a 20 percent greenhouse gas reduction, Adler says.

The greatest impact on reducing the amount of greenhouse gases associated with energy use by switching to biofuels came from eliminating the life cycle greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use, followed by the storage of carbon in the soil from perennial crops. People most often think of carbon when considering greenhouse gases, but agricultural systems release methane from the soil, which is 23 times more active than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas, and nitrous oxide, which is 300 times more powerful, Parton explains. Plus, the carbon sequestration effect of no-till or perennial crops has a relatively short-term positive effect on greenhouse gas emissions. "It's a positive for 20 years, then you reach a new equilibrium," Parton says.

Susanne Retka Schill is an Ethanol Producer Magazine staff writer. Reach her at sretkaschill@bbibiofuels.com or (701) 746-8385.


technorati BIOconversion, bioenergy, biofuels, ethanol, cellulosic, gasification

LS9 - Using synthetic biology to produce renewable petroleum

Most of the technologies explored on this blog involve the production of cellulosic ethanol using biochemical or thermochemical processes. But ethanol has its detractors, and the processes that produce cellulosic ethanol can involve the use of water and the expense of energy to produce heat. What emerging technology and renewable fuels might succeed cellulosic ethanol? Biotechnologists on both coasts think they have the answer - Renewable Petroleum™ produced using synthetic biology. Let the company's website and an article from Technology Review tell the story...

LS9, Inc., the Renewable Petroleum Company™, is a privately-held biotechnology company pursuing industrial applications of synthetic biology to produce proprietary biofuels. LS9's products, currently under development, are designed to closely resemble petroleum derived fuels, but be renewable, clean, domestically produced, and cost competitive. In addition to biofuels, LS9 will also develop industrial biochemicals for specialty applications.

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From Technology Review
Hydrocarbon fuels are better suited than ethanol to existing delivery infrastructure and engines, and their manufacture would require less energy. To make biological production of hydrocarbons a reality, the company is bringing together leaders in synthetic biology and industrial biotechnology.

Synthetic biology is the state of the art of bioenegineering, and refers to the design, construction, and improvement of biological machines at the molecular genetic level.

Using synthetic biology, LS9 has reached into nature and accessed the required biological tools, engineered them to function under industrial conditions, and is optimizing their performance to meet our economic objectives.

It has genetically engineered various bacteria, including E. coli, to custom-produce hydrocarbon chains.

Beyond custom-developing hydrocarbons, LS9 foresees licensing its technology. In particular, the company might someday forge agreements with ethanol producers, whose manufacturing plants could be put to more profitable and efficient use making hydrocarbon fuels.

LS9 is counting on the fact that ethanol is not really the best biofuel. Ethanol can't be delivered through existing pipelines. It also contains 30 percent less energy than gasoline, and it must be mixed with gasoline before being burned in conventional engines. LS9's fuels would have none of these disadvantages. What's more, LS9's fuels might be produced more efficiently than ethanol. For example, at the end of ethanol fermentation, the mixture has to be distilled to separate ethanol from water. LS9's products would just float to the top of a fermentation tank to be skimmed off.

LS9 now needs to prove that its technology is economical and can produce fuels on a large scale, says Jim McMillan, principal biochemical engineer in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Bioenergy Center, based in Golden, CO. "I don't doubt that [making hydrocarbon fuel from microbes] can be done; the question is how quickly and at what cost," he says. LS9 says it hopes to bring its hydrocarbon biofuels to market in four or five years.

Next year LS9 will build a pilot plant in California to test and perfect the process, and the company hopes to be selling improved biodiesel and providing synthetic biocrudes to refineries for further processing within three to five years.

technorati BIOconversion, bioenergy, biofuels

Motivating U.S. energy growth with "carrots" and "sticks"

Before breaking for summer the U.S. 110th Congress made strides on defining energy policies through passage of the 2007 Farm Bill (July 27th) and Energy Bills (August 4th). Analysis of these measures shows how the House seeks to achieve its goals by luring development with the "carrots" of incentives while threatening corporations with the "sticks" of taxes and regulatory standards.

In comparison to deliberations on the 2005 Energy Policy Act (EPACT) - passed prior to Bush's alarm-sounding "addicted to oil" State of the Union message and the oil price hikes of 2006 - both sides of the aisle seem to be tripping over themselves to prove to their constituencies that they "get" voter concern about the impact of U.S. oil dependency on the war in Iraq, the steep increases in the price of gasoline, carbon emissions from fossil fuels, and the overall need for more self-reliance for both electric and fuel energy production.

As a result, the Farm Bill and Energy Bill includes provisions that strongly support renewable energy development in general and biofuels development in particular.

So what are in these bills? While various news outlets carry detailed comparisons of the House and Senate versions of each, suffice it to say that the main issues break down between those usually held by pro-business Republicans vs. pro-environmentalist Democrats.

Carrots
"Carrots" are incentives that enable private enterprise to reduce the risk of investment in new research, development, & deployment (RD&D). Reliance is placed on American business acumen, the power of profit-motive, and the social benefit of good jobs to spur innovation and positive action. They tend to favor a cap and trade system used in Europe to reward progress implementing carbon emission reduction and energy efficient technologies.

The carrots the House Energy Bill contains -
• New tax credits for consumers to buy plug-in electric hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles as well as low-interest loans and grants for consumers to buy energy efficient appliances and install solar panels and geothermal pumps at their homes.
• Incentives to build biomass factories and for research into cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel.
• Bonds to be used by cities and counties for energy conservation.
• Tax credits for installing E-85 pumps.
• Tax breaks, subsidies for research into better batteries for plug-in hybrid cars and up to $4,000 tax credit for purchasing such cars.
• Funds for an assessment of areas for underground carbon dioxide storage and calls for developing large-scale storage demonstration projects.

The 2007 Farm Bill (H.R. 2419) includes some other carrots -
• Funding to invest in rural communities nationwide, including economic development programs and access to broadband telecommunication services.
• New investments in popular conservation programs, including the Conservation Reserve Program, Wetlands Reserve Program, Environmental Quality Incentive Program, Farm and Ranchland Protection Program
• New investments in renewable energy research, development and production in rural America. Rebalancing loan rates and target prices among commodities, achieving greater regional equity.
• Additional funding aimed at protecting and sustaining our nation’s forest resources.

How would these carrots be paid for, besides growth in tax revenues from development of new industries? The House voted to repeal $16 billion in tax breaks given to the oil and gas industry, shifting the money into programs to boost biofuels, renewable energy and efficiency programs.

Sticks
"Sticks" are regulations and punitive taxes that would increase government oversight of the process of energy technology deployment. Sticks would retard those technological development that could possibly threaten the environment, institute mandates on renewable energy purchases, set high standards on vehicle mileage and emissions reduction, and tax companies that fail to implement emissions improvements.

Some sticks create business opportunities. State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) are an example. These mechanisms require utilities to purchase a certain percentage of their electricity from renewable sources. This tends to create market opportunities that encourage investment in chiefly solar and wind energy systems. California and Florida utilities are embracing these standards, in part because of other carrots and sticks. The Global Warming Act and similar California legislation that puts a cap on the use of coal to produce electricity threaten utility access to these mainstay sources of generation. However, the renewable energy sources can result in electricity that is more costly and more seasonal than current modes of generation, consequently they result in higher costs which are usually passed on to the consumer.

Another factor involved with RPS is that access to these wind and solar energy are regional. For this reason, Southern utilities are bristling at the attempt of Congress to pass a national RPS . They don't have much access to wind and solar energy. Biomass energy could rectify the imbalance because the Southeast is the wood basket of America and wood waste is actually a good source of bioenergy, but biofuel conversion technologies have yet to be employed commercial-scale and are at an early adopter stage of marketing.

The sticks the House Energy Bill contains include:
• Requirements that electric utilities produce 15 percent of electricity from renewable energy sources.
• New efficiency standards for appliances, lighting and building

The Farm Bill also contains -
• Strengthening payment limits for farm subsidies to ensure that people making more than $1 million a year (adjusted gross income) can’t collect conservation and farm program payments.
• Provisions that close loopholes that allow people to avoid payment limits by receiving subsidies through multiple business units.

One stick sought by the Democrats that didn't get passed was a big increase in federal fuel economy standards for all cars and trucks. The auto companies, like GM, have argued that this would cripple their industries because the American public still demands gas guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, the most profitable vehicles they make. Nevertheless, Speaker Pelosi is expected to push to include a Senate provision to raise fuel economy to 35 miles per gallon for cars and trucks by 2020 during deliberations.

What do the experts think about these Bills?
Bob Dinneen, President of the Renewable Fuels Association said this about the Energy Bill - “This bill could be to next generation cellulosic ethanol production what the 2005 energy bill was to grain-based ethanol. To achieve the ambitious goals the American people are calling for, it will require the production of ethanol from all available feedstocks, including corn, corn stover, switchgrass, wood chips and other cellulosic materials. This bill strikes the right chord by requiring that 21 billion of the 36 billion gallon requirement be met by cellulosic ethanol production."

Marchant Wentworth, a legislative representative for the Union of Concerned Scientists says "The Energy Bill saves consumers money, creates jobs and makes a down payment on reducing the threat of global warming."

Even though it satisfies the interests of most farmers, the Farm Bill looks like it might face a Bush veto. In one section Democrats added another "stick". They said they were closing a loophole and cracking down on foreign tax-dodgers, while Republicans called it a massive tax hike that would affect manufacturers that provide millions of jobs in their districts.

"This is an unprecedented move to use a farm bill as a vehicle to increase taxes," said Rep. Adam Putnam of Florida, the No. 3 Republican. "We could have put the House imprint on the farm bill, and now it is veto bait, and that is a tragedy."

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Democrats had narrowed support for farm programs by including the tax measure in the bill. "If there was ever a time when our farm programs needed friends, it is now," he said.

Both bills will now go to the Senate to be merged with their versions.

technorati bioenergy, biofuels, ethanol, cellulosic, legislation, gasification, decentralization, security

Fuel Ethanol Workshop promotes vision and collaboration

The 2007 Fuel Ethanol Workshop was informative, thought provoking, and inspirational. Its scope was very broad. While enumerating the many benefits of a robust renewable energy paradigm, it also sought to promote greater collaboration between capitalism and environmentalism. It sought to stretch the range of feedstock beyond corn to cellulosic raw materials. And it provided many opportunities for attendees, embarked on a globally important quest, to meet and learn from each other how to achieve their goals.

Gateway to the Future

Symbolically, the choice of venue couldn't have more appropriate. It was held at the America's Center just west of St. Louis' inspirational Gateway Arch. Millions marvel at the futuristic elegance of its gleaming structure.

Between the vaulting legs of the arch is the underground Jefferson National Expansion Memorial - a contemporary reminder of the pioneering American spirit and its tireless urge to explore. In 1803 Thomas Jefferson oversaw the Louisiana Purchase that doubled the size of the country. He predicted it would take "a thousand years to settle." It took less than a hundred. This demonstrates that even a visionary as prodigious as Jefferson can dramatically underestimate the character and energy of his countrymen and the draw such vision represents to people around the world - many of whom immigrated to settle in the new territory. We are clearly at the gateway to a new era for emerging technologies that will transform the world energy paradigm and impact the exercise of freedom everywhere.

Building a globally important industry

The sense that biofuels companies are not just on the threshold of forming a globally important industry but also of insuring the humanitarian sustainability of future generations was highlighted during the opening session. BBI International hosts the conference and its CEO, Mike Bryan spoke eloquently to the attendees about the importance of the renewable fuels quest in global terms:

You are here to build an industry.

You represent a stronger economy - not just a stronger rural economy, but also a stronger urban economy because a rising tide raises all ships.

You also represent energy independence and energy security. Renewable energy promotes world peace. A new age in energy. When the oil wells and the oil refineries of today are nothing more than rusted relics of a past generation, renewable energy will continue to supply clean domestically produced energy not only to this country but also to countries all around the world.

We hope that soon, someday soon, we no longer will go to war over oil and that it is just simply a faded memory.

The need for both capitalism and environmentalism

Bryan was equally passionate when he spoke about the need for capitalists and environmentalists to work together:

You represent a cleaner environment. There’s been a lot of discussion over the years about capitalism and the environmentalism. They never seem to have gotten together, have they? That needs to change. We need to work with environmentalists.

You know what? Wealth creates pollution. Wealth needs to solve the pollution problem in this world. Capitalism alone is haughty, environmentalism alone is weak. But when we combine the two together we have something that can actually change the world.

It's okay to make money, it's okay to be profitable, that's a good thing. But as capitalists, as people who are in business to generate revenue and generate profit, we need to think about how we can create a better environment. We always need to be thinking about how we can collaborate with the environmental movement around the world.

To emphasize the importance of the environmental message, the keynote address was presented by Karen Coshof from Stonehaven Productions, Executive Producer of The Great Warming, a documentary about the threat of global warming and the need for "enlightened corporations, religious institutions, environmental and political leaders to recognize our moral responsibility to be stewards of the Earth today and for future generations."

Our time to stabilize global climate is shrinking fast. You are all working to move the world to a new and, I hope, a more sustainable energy paradigm. When you make your decisions and talk to each other over the next few days, factor in your children's future because failure is not an option.

Expanding the role of renewable biofuels

Bob Dinneen, President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association reflected on the immense change that has taken place over the last few years when he said:

50% of the nation's fuel is blended with ethanol. Every single gallon of gasoline sold in New York and California is blended with ethanol. Every single gallon of gasoline sold in Houston, Texas - where big oil executives have to drive to work each day on your fuel - is testament to how far we have come. But we surely have a long way to go.

We have to remind people that technology is not stagnant – that we are going to get greater and greater yields from an acre of corn. That technology is going to allow us to satisfy demand for grain used in feed, fuel, and fiber throughout this country.

We need to get the message out that... the price of gasoline has a far greater impact on consumer food prices than does a bushel of corn.

A recent poll that was done revealed that more than three out of every four Americans believe we need to be doing much more. We need to be maximizing production and use of renewable fuels like ethanol.

Congress has got that message. Congress saw what the Renewable Fuel Standard has done for our industry.

Diversifying ethanol feedstock

One way to maximize production of renewable fuels is to incorporate the use of a greater range of biomass feedstock. Poet President Jeff Broin announced a new project that will use corn cobs and corn fiber as the feedstock for their commercial cellulosic ethanol production facility that will be jointly funded with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

Numerous workshops shed light on advancements in cellulosic biomass conversion into ethanol. Of the six D.O.E. "Section 932" award winners, four made presentations about their processes including Abengoa, Poet, Alico (and their technology partner, BRI), and BlueFire. However, other workshops dealt with issues that were important to all ethanol production processes.

Workshop 3 dealt with logistics and the transportation grid that currently exists to service the growing industry. Sandra Dearden, President of Highroad Consulting, Ltd. made a strong point during her presentation on "Integrating Transportation: Planning for Future Growth" that rail service is not on a trajectory that will adequately service the anticipated needs of the ethanol industry. When asked about future volume capacity, Sandra responded:

The thing that scares me the most is that the freight volume is likely to double within the next 14 years. It takes two years for a railroad to receive an ordered locomotive. It takes about ten months to get someone trained to be on a crew to be on a locomotive. And, at the same time, we don't have the infrastructure capacity. The railroads have gone to the House (of Representatives) and asked for assistance for funding additional railroad infrastructure.

The current status of Carbon Credits

Workshop 7 was titled "Greenhouse Gases: Capitalizing on Carbon Credits." Should a cap and trade mechanism be fully implemented nationwide, the value of GHG emissions is estimated to represent $50-$300 billion dollars by 2020 (US Congressional Budget Office). Keeping abreast of the carbon credit systems that are developed may spell the difference between survival and bankrupcy for many developers.

How can we use carbon credits to provide incentives for responsible industry behavior without undermining the financial stability of existing leveraged corporations? If a carbon credit system is used, what input will be taken into account? The answers will tend to be regionalized state-by-state. In the meantime, experts are developing tools to calculate the value of carbon credits based on a complex set of data input. Once of these is the BEACCON model, implemented in Excel®. which is free to download from http://lifecycleassociates.com/beaccon.php.

The BEACCON (Biofuels Emissions and Cost Connection) model allows ethanol producers to evaluate the potential impacts on production costs of the global warming intensity (GWI) of different biofuel production pathways. Version 1.0 of the model focuses on ethanol plants with a capacity range between 50 and 100 million gallons per year.

Another computational model is being developed by the University of Nebraska called the Biofuel Energy Systems Simulator (BESS). It will be released July 20th for free download.

The Biofuel Energy Systems Simulator (BESS) model provides a holistic “cradle-to-grave” analysis of energy use and net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the entire biofuel production cycle—including crop production, ethanol conversion, and by-product use and waste disposal via associated cattle feedlots and anaerobic biodigestion systems. The model estimates the net energy efficiency and net GHG emissions for each component of the biofuel production life cycle and also for the integrated system as a whole.

James Murphy of Carbon Green, LLC was on hand to provide an introduction to the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) - which trades Carbon Financial Instrument™ (CFI) contracts.

CCX members make a voluntary but legally binding commitment to meet annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. Those who reduce below the targets have surplus allowances to sell or bank; those who emit above the targets comply by purchasing CCX CFI contracts.

Notably, the U.S. Congress recently passed an appropriations bill amendment instructing the House to join the CCX - which requests that the House Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) purchase Carbon Financial Instruments from American projects through the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) to offset carbon produced by all House operations after renewable energy and efficiency improvements are made.


New Technologies

The new technologies addressed by FEW workshops this year included four of the six D.O.E. "Section 932" award winners mentioned earlier.

Bob Wooley, Principal Engineer from NREL/DOE gave an illuminating presentation on how his organization is helping the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plant and cultivate emerging technology development in the private sector. He talked about the dynamics and economics for expanding the fuel supply chain with a focus on two complex areas of the problem - feedstock supply and capital investment. They have developed a model called STELLA™ to understand how DOE activities might influence the ultimate ethanol deployment and explore what else (outside of DOE) might be needed to reach the desired deployment levels.

Other technologies included a DOE look at the emissions and performance characteristics of the SAAB 9-5 BioPower automobile and how the Chippewa Valley Ethanol Company is developing plans to displace over 90% of its fossil fuel usage with renewable biomass.

Hurdles to Deployment of E85

The Ethanol Promotion and Information Council (EPIC) held a special workshop on E85 during which their Director of Operations, Robert White, updated information about Underwriters Laboratories (UL) who rescinded E85 pump and pump component certification in September and October of 2006. This sent a chill through the distribution service industry for ethanol. There is now a process that is being developed to create standards for submitting equipment for certification and UL approval.

Back in February 2007 UL did complete a survey of dispensers across the country that concluded that E85 equipment has not resulted in any significant safety problems. A separate Brazil survey concluded in May 2007 rendered similar results. UL is now working inhouse to develop new standards which it hopes will be completed and published by December of 2007. It is anticipated that it will take a while to pass certification and it will not be until the fourth quarter of 2008 that there will be UL certified dispensers on the street.

The consequences have not completely curtailed deployment of pumps because some manufacturers are providing special warrants on safety and security in the absence of UL certification. However, this is an issue for the big box retailers (WalMart and others) and in Hawaii a program to install 25 E85 pumps was halted by the Fire Marshal because of the lack of UL approval.

Carl Donges from Clean Fuels USA talked about some equipment that his company represents that will have a big impact on how ethanol is dispensed now and will in the future. Texas based CleanFUEL USA has established itself as the leading global manufacturer of certified and approved alternative fuel dispensing equipment for both propane (LPG) and E85 and has expanded its role as an industry leader by providing comprehensive alternative motor fuel programs for fleet managers throughout the world.

Not only do they currently market dedicated pumps for dispensing ethanol but they also sell retrofitting kits and even pumps that blend different percentages of pure ethanol with standard gasoline at the dispensing station.

During Workshop 14 Jim Stewart of BRI made a presentation promoting the conversion of waste-to-ethanol using a thermochemical process. He used the occasion to launch a scathing attack accusing Big Oil companies of attempting to control renewable energy development so as to mitigate the possible negative impacts on their established businesses:

The public face of Big Oil appears to be committed to a transition between petroleum to alternative energy. But its private face is providing funds to educational institutions and think tanks that are generating unfavorable studies or otherwise opposing ethanol as a substitute for gasoline - and in subtle ways Big Oil is taking other steps to slow its expansion.

He then listed several high profile instances that he felt demonstrated the conflict of interest between the funding of educational institutions by Big Oil and subsequent research announcements detrimental to ethanol's image in the press. It is a touchy subject to be addressed at FEW because the oil companies, with their refineries that blend ethanol into their gasoline to meet state standards, are the primary customers of ethanol producers.


The promise of renewable fuel development will depend upon the collaboration of competing stakeholder interests (academia, business, social, environmental, and political) while correcting public misperceptions as reported in the press. The call is being raised for insightful leaders who can see and develop the common ground shared by these many sectors. Clearly, not all sectors were equally represented at FEW 2007, but the workshops stimulated multi-interest discourse and provided a forum for industry leaders to learn from each other.

For more information, see BBI's own publication for a Ethanol Producer recap

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U.S. D.O.E. funds 3 Bioenergy Research Centers

The U.S. Department of Energy announced today the formalization and funding of three individual research centers throughout the country devoted to making advances on biomass conversion technologies for the creation of renewable energy.

The establishment of the bioenergy research centers culminates a six-year effort by DOE’s Office of Science to lay the foundation for breakthroughs in systems biology for the cost-effective production of renewable energy. In July 2006, DOE’s Office of Science issued a joint biofuels research agenda with the Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy titled Breaking the Biological Barriers to Cellulosic Ethanol. The report provides a detailed roadmap for cellulosic ethanol research, identifying key roadblocks and areas where scientific breakthroughs are needed.

Here is more of their press release:

----------------
Energy Department Selects Three Bioenergy Research Centers for $375 Million in Federal Funding
Basic Genomics Research Furthers President Bush’s Plan to Reduce Gasoline Usage 20 Percent in Ten Year

U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel W. Bodman today announced that DOE will invest up to $375 million in three new Bioenergy Research Centers that will be located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee; Madison, Wisconsin; and near Berkeley, California. The Centers are intended to accelerate basic research in the development of cellulosic ethanol and other biofuels, advancing President Bush’s Twenty in Ten Initiative, which seeks to reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 20 percent within ten years through increased efficiency and diversification of clean energy sources. The Department plans to fund the Centers for the first five years of operation (Fiscal Years 2008-2013).

“These Centers will provide the transformational science needed for bioenergy breakthroughs to advance President Bush’s goal of making cellulosic ethanol cost-competitive with gasoline by 2012, and assist in reducing America’s gasoline consumption by 20 percent in ten years,” Secretary Bodman said. “The collaborations of academic, corporate, and national laboratory researchers represented by these centers are truly impressive and I am very encouraged by the potential they hold for advancing America’s energy security.”

To bring the latest tools of the biotechnology revolution to bear to advance clean energy production, the Centers will be supported by multidisciplinary teams of top scientists. A major focus will be on understanding how to reengineer biological processes to develop new, more efficient methods for converting the cellulose in plant material into ethanol or other biofuels that serve as a substitute for gasoline. This research is critical because future biofuels production will require the use of feedstocks more diverse than corn, including cellulosic material like agricultural residues, grasses, poplar trees, inedible plants, and non-edible portions of crops.

The Centers will bring together diverse teams of researchers from 18 of the nation’s leading universities, seven DOE national laboratories, at least one nonprofit organization, and a range of private companies. All three Centers are located in geographically distinct areas and will use different plants both for laboratory research and for improving feedstock crops.

The mission of the Bioenergy Research Centers will lie at the frontier between basic and applied science, and will maintain a focus on bioenergy applications. These Centers aim to identify real steps toward practical solutions regarding to the challenge of producing renewable, carbon-neutral energy. At the same time, the Centers will be grounded in basic research, pursuing alternative avenues and a range of high-risk, high-return approaches to finding solutions. To some degree, one key to the Centers’ success will be their ability to develop the more basic dimensions of their research to a point that can easily transition to applied research.

The Department’s three Bioenergy Research Centers will include:

The DOE BioEnergy Science Center led by the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The Center Director will be Martin Keller, and collaborators include: Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia; DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado; University of Georgia in Athens, Georgia; Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire; and the University of Tennessee, in Knoxville, Tennessee.

The DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center will be led by the University of Wisconsin in Madison, Wisconsin, in close collaboration with Michigan State University in East Lansing, Michigan. The Center Director will be Timothy Donohue, and other collaborators include: DOE’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington; Lucigen Corporation in Middleton, Wisconsin; University of Florida in Gainesville, Florida; DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee; Illinois State University in Normal, Illinois; and Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa.

The DOE Joint BioEnergy Institute will be led by DOE’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The Institute Director will be Jay Keasling, and collaborators include: Sandia National Laboratories; DOE’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; University of California - Berkeley; University of California - Davis; and Stanford University in Stanford, California.

Read additional information on DOE’s biofuels initiatives

Additional information is available on the Department’s three Bioenergy Research Centers and the Department’s Genomics Research Programs.


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U.S. Senate - "Make 25x'25 happen!"

Congratulations to all 25x'25 champions and supporters - our collective effort has paid off. This morning the U.S. Senate adopted by unanimous consent the 25x'25 national goal resolution. The following is a press release announcing this achievement.

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BOLD NEW U.S. ENERGY GOAL ADOPTED BY SENATE: 25 PERCENT OF ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES BY 2025

Bipartisan Measure Enjoys Support from Ag, Industry Environmental Leaders

The U.S. Senate today adopted by unanimous consent a resolution calling for a new national renewable energy goal: 25 percent of the nation's energy supply from renewable sources by 2025. The resolution, which builds on a vision developed by a broad coalition of agriculture, forestry, industry, and environmental leaders, was adopted by voice vote as an amendment to the energy legislation currently under consideration on the Senate floor. A final vote on the full Senate energy package is expected next week.

"The 25x'25 resolution stresses the virtue of exploring an all-inclusive renewable energy strategy by emphasizing the need to cultivate energy from all kinds of renewable resources, such as wind, biomass, solar, hydropower and geothermal sources," said lead sponsor, Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO). The 25x'25 vision "is bold and fully attainable. If implemented, it would dramatically improve our energy security, our economy, and our ability to protect the environment and combat global warming," he added.

Salazar, who was joined by 33 other Senate members from both sides of the aisle in supporting the resolution, said 25x'25 "sets a policy goal for our nation" that "complements" the energy package under debate. The goal calls for 25 percent of the nation's energy needs being met with renewable resources from farms, forests and ranches by 2025. The amendment also reinforces the 25x'25 principle that the U.S. agricultural and forestry industries, while producing renewable energy, will continue to produce safe, abundant and affordable food feed and fiber."

J. Read Smith, co-chair of the 25x'25 Steering Committee, expressed the alliance's gratitude to the resolution's sponsors, calling the vote an important first step on the road to a new energy future. "This action demonstrates that policymakers recognize the crucial role that our nation's farms, ranches and forests can play in improving energy security while enhancing the environment and strengthening our economy," Smith said.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), another co-sponsor, said the pending energy legislation "is an appropriate place to include the 25x'25 resolution. The 25x'25 vision sets workable goals for renewable energy production and use that we can all aim for with sensible policies and initiatives." Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), who is also a lead co-sponsor, said "energy security is tied to national security and also means income and economic opportunity for agriculture and rural America. If we are to attain national energy and economic security for our nation, we must reach these aggressive but achievable energy goals." Harkin added, "The 25x'25 plan had very broad consensus support, which helped the Senate incorporate these proposals into our new energy policy."

Co-sponsor, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), said "addressing the climate crisis is one of the greatest challenges America faces today. Any comprehensive strategy to fight climate change must include a strong renewable energy standard in addition to a low carbon fuel standard, raised fuel economy standards, and incentives to promote efficiency. This bipartisan resolution will make an unprecedented goal for producing 25 percent of America's energy from renewable sources by 2025." And co-sponsor, Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) noted that "global oil and natural gas reserves are concentrated in tumultuous regions that include nations hostile to the United States. Our national security and economic prosperity demand that we move to a sustainable energy future. Ambitious targets that help motivate innovation are crucial. I applaud members of the 25x'25 coalition for providing a vision for renewable fuels,"

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), another co-sponsor, said that "in order to ensure our national energy security, America must develop a broad spectrum of renewable energy resources. The agenda of 25x'25 will help this country to meet its 21st century energy needs and ensure reliable and environmentally-friendly domestic energy sources for future generations."

The resolution has the support of more than 500 national, regional and local agricultural, forestry, business, energy, environmental and labor organizations; and more than a third of the nation's governors and 10 state legislatures. A similar resolution (H. Con. Res. 25), is pending in the House of Representatives.

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U.S. D.O.E./E.I.A. International Energy Outlook 2007

Business Energy Reports publishes a prolific number of excellent research reports that address the "global energy industry" and are available online for purchase. Did I mention that they are pricey? Well they are and it would serve them well to offer a discount based on volume purchases. Still, if you are curious to see one, they do offer a free loss leader called "Market Survey of the Energy Industry" which you receive online if you sign up for their email announcements of new releases.

Occasionally they distribute press releases that announce new reports from other agencies that are available online. This week they featured the U.S. Department of Energy's latest International Energy Outlook 2007 which is published through the Energy Information Administration (EIA) website (see below).

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P R E S S   R E L E A S E

For Immediate Release
Press Contact: Barbara Drazga
Press@EnergyBusinessReports.com
Tel: 800-304-0345
www.energybusinessreports.com


World Energy Use Projected to Grow 57 Percent between 2004 and 2030

Phoenix, AZ –May 21, 2007 – World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent  between 2004 and 2030, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEO2007 shows the most rapid growth in energy demand for nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) especially in non-OECD Asia, where strong projected economic growth drives the increase in energy use.
 
Global energy demand grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural gas prices in the reference case. However, rising oil prices dampen growth in demand for petroleum and other liquids fuels after 2015 and, as a result, reducing their share of overall energy use from 38 percent in 2004 to a projected 34 percent in 2030.  In contrast, the energy shares of natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources are expected to grow over this period.  Liquids consumption is still expected to grow strongly, however, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030. The United States, China, and India together account for nearly half of the projected growth in world liquids use.
 
To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the IEO2007 reference case, supply in 2030 is projected to be 35 million barrels oil equivalent per day higher than the 2004 level of 83 million barrels per day.  Conventional resources account for about 27 million barrels per day of this increase, with a projected 21 million barrels per day increase in production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a 6 million barrels per day increase in non-OPEC countries.  Production from unconventional resources (including biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) increases by nearly 8 million barrels per day and accounts for 9 percent of total world liquids supply in 2030.
 
View Details on Related Reports:
Unconventional Gas Outlook: Resources, Economics, and Technologies 2007
Biomass to Biofuels Market Potential 2007
Commercialization of Coal to Liquids Technology 2007
Gas to Liquids Technology and Market Potential
 
Other EIA report highlights include:
 
* Coal consumption, which grows an average annual rate of 2.2 percent, is the fastest-growing energy source worldwide in the IEO2007 reference case projection, which assumes that existing laws and policies remain in effect through 2030 notwithstanding concerns related to the rising level of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. World coal consumption increased sharply from 2003 to 2004, largely because of a 17-percent increase-on a British thermal unit (Btu) basis-in non-OECD Asia (mainly China and India). With oil and natural gas prices expected to continue rising, coal is an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample coal resources, especially in coal-rich countries like China, India, and the United States. These three countries combined account for 86 percent of the increment in world coal demand by 2030 in the reference case projection.
 
* Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve prospects for nuclear power capacity in many parts of the world, and a number of countries are expected to build new nuclear power plants. World nuclear capacity is projected to rise from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481 gigawatts in 2030.  Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries (including Germany and Belgium) have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some old reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced.
 
* In the IEO2007 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030. From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries grew by almost 10 percent, while emissions in the OECD countries grew by less than 2 percent.  The result of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that 2004 marked the first time in history that emissions from the non-OECD exceeded those from the OECD countries.  Further, because of the expectation that non-OECD countries will rely on fossil fuels to supply much of their future energy demand growth, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries in 2030 are projected to exceed those from the OECD by 57 percent.
 
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Molecular visualization of the bioconversion process

The tools available for the hunt for renewable energy are very 21st Century. In place of wildcatting subterranean petroleum deposits using multi-million dollar rigs and oil crews, much of the ground-breaking research is taking place with meticulous precision at government labs in collaboration with universities and industry. New tools include robotics, mass spectrometers, laser imagers, and data collection and analysis devices. As a result, communications can be digital and more visual than ever before, speeding questions and understanding at warp speed around the globe.

The Society of Industrial Microbiology convened their 29th Symposium on Biotechnology for Fuels and Chemicals in Denver this week which was hosted by the federally-financed National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) situated in nearby Golden, Colorado. One of the highlights of the symposium was a tour of NREL's groundbreaking facilities. The tour included visits to its biochemical and thermochemical labs and pilot plants for converting an array of feedstock (particularly corn stover for now) into sugars and ethanol.

One stop was in a research area where high tech imaging devices are employed to analyze cell and molecular structures involved in the bioconversion process. At right is a picture of the X8 Proteum - a new tool for conducting biological crystallography research. Data collected from this device can be used to build accurate models and animations to aid understanding.

Each tour group was treated to a 4 minute animation that zoomed from outside a corn plant into its stalk structures with an intricate graphic depiction of how molecules interact during the bioconversion process. It was built from data provided by NREL and visualized by the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC).

In an article titled Tapping Plants for Fuel Cassie Ferguson, writing for the SDSC, explains the animation process this way:

To explore the intricate molecular dynamics of cellulase, researchers at NREL have turned to CHARMM (Chemistry at HARvard Molecular Mechanics), a suite of modeling software for macromolecular simulations, including energy minimization, molecular dynamics, and Monte Carlo simulations. The widely-used community code, originally developed in 1983 in the laboratory of Martin Karplus at Harvard University, models how atoms interact.

In the cellulase modeling, CHARMM is used to explore the ensemble configurations and protein structure, the interactions of the protein with the cellulose substrate, and the interactions of water with both. Not only are the NREL simulations the first to simultaneously model the cellulase enzyme, cellulose substrate, and surrounding water, they are among the largest molecular systems ever modeled. In particular, the researchers are interested in how cellulase aligns and attaches itself to cellulose, how the separate parts of cellulase—called protein domains—work with one another, and the effect of water on the overall system. And they are also investigating which of the over 500 amino acids that make up the cellulase protein are central to the overall workings of the "machine" as it chews up cellulose.

To the biochemists in the collaboration, the simulation is like a stop-motion film of a baseball pitcher throwing a curveball. In real-life the process occurs too quickly to evaluate visually, but by breaking down the throw into a step-by-step process, observers can find out the precise role of velocity, trajectory, movement, and arm angle. In simulations on SDSC's DataStar supercomputer, the researchers have modeled a portion of the enzyme, the type 1 cellulose binding domain, on a surface of crystalline cellulose in a box of water. The modeling revealed how the amino acids of the domain orient themselves when they interact with crystalline cellulose as well as how the interaction disrupts the layer of water molecules that lie on top of the cellulose, providing a detailed glimpse of this intricate molecular dance.

While this lengthy animation does not appear to be available online, another bioconversion cartoon (pictured at top) simulated by Dr. Mark Nimlosis (NREL) and visualized by Dr. Ross Walker and Amit Chourasia of SDSC is available for download.

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Biomass Gasification at the "Chin-dia" price

Thomas Friedman talks about the need for new alternative energy systems to be affordable at the "China price" or, more broadly the "Chin-dia price" - cheap enough for China or India to deploy because with the demand for renewable energy so high in those countries, they may indeed be the first to develop and deploy them. He contends that the ultimate solution(s) will have to compete economically with the "Chin-dia price". Certainly, without near global deployment of a variety of technologies suited to each culture and eco-system, alternative energy will never effectively shift the energy paradigm to carbon-neutral renewable feedstock.

We typically think of "biomass gasification" as an elegant but expensive alternative to co-firing or fossil fuel combustion. A recent Biopact article titled Biomass gasification to power rural India out of energy povertydispells that myth:

Even though there is no magic solution to the age-old development problem of bringing electricity to the rural poor, some elements and factors have been identified as key: decentralisation, reliance on locally available energy resources (water, wind, the sun or biomass) and, crucially, the need for low-cost systems.

Experts from India think these principles and requirements converge in a technology known as biomass gasification, in an electrification concept that has become commercially feasible and reliable (in-depth discussion of the technology, here, or see the image showing a downdraft biomass gasifier, click to enlarge). The energy system may be applicable to rural areas in the developing world at large because it is the least costly of the common alternatives. Depending on local circumstances, it is estimated to be between 15 and 20 times less costly than photovoltaics.

Several community-operated experiments with decentralised biomass gasification and electrification are now underway in India, and it looks like the technology can literally turn marginalised communities into thriving and prosperous societies (see the case-study). Drawing on this success, an ambitious initiative by science institutes and the private sector has been launched aimed at mass-producing efficient small to medium-scale gasifiers

It turns out that Ludditism - the tendency of technology detractors to hold up deployment for any number of reasons - is the most expensive part of any alternative energy technology. If Americans persist in delaying implementation of even the most tested and reasonable solutions to our environmental/energy problems, we will cede leadership in the investment and development of emerging technologies.

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