August 5, 2007

Motivating U.S. energy growth with "carrots" and "sticks"

Before breaking for summer the U.S. 110th Congress made strides on defining energy policies through passage of the 2007 Farm Bill (July 27th) and Energy Bills (August 4th). Analysis of these measures shows how the House seeks to achieve its goals by luring development with the "carrots" of incentives while threatening corporations with the "sticks" of taxes and regulatory standards.

In comparison to deliberations on the 2005 Energy Policy Act (EPACT) - passed prior to Bush's alarm-sounding "addicted to oil" State of the Union message and the oil price hikes of 2006 - both sides of the aisle seem to be tripping over themselves to prove to their constituencies that they "get" voter concern about the impact of U.S. oil dependency on the war in Iraq, the steep increases in the price of gasoline, carbon emissions from fossil fuels, and the overall need for more self-reliance for both electric and fuel energy production.

As a result, the Farm Bill and Energy Bill includes provisions that strongly support renewable energy development in general and biofuels development in particular.

So what are in these bills? While various news outlets carry detailed comparisons of the House and Senate versions of each, suffice it to say that the main issues break down between those usually held by pro-business Republicans vs. pro-environmentalist Democrats.

Carrots
"Carrots" are incentives that enable private enterprise to reduce the risk of investment in new research, development, & deployment (RD&D). Reliance is placed on American business acumen, the power of profit-motive, and the social benefit of good jobs to spur innovation and positive action. They tend to favor a cap and trade system used in Europe to reward progress implementing carbon emission reduction and energy efficient technologies.

The carrots the House Energy Bill contains -
• New tax credits for consumers to buy plug-in electric hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles as well as low-interest loans and grants for consumers to buy energy efficient appliances and install solar panels and geothermal pumps at their homes.
• Incentives to build biomass factories and for research into cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel.
• Bonds to be used by cities and counties for energy conservation.
• Tax credits for installing E-85 pumps.
• Tax breaks, subsidies for research into better batteries for plug-in hybrid cars and up to $4,000 tax credit for purchasing such cars.
• Funds for an assessment of areas for underground carbon dioxide storage and calls for developing large-scale storage demonstration projects.

The 2007 Farm Bill (H.R. 2419) includes some other carrots -
• Funding to invest in rural communities nationwide, including economic development programs and access to broadband telecommunication services.
• New investments in popular conservation programs, including the Conservation Reserve Program, Wetlands Reserve Program, Environmental Quality Incentive Program, Farm and Ranchland Protection Program
• New investments in renewable energy research, development and production in rural America. Rebalancing loan rates and target prices among commodities, achieving greater regional equity.
• Additional funding aimed at protecting and sustaining our nation’s forest resources.

How would these carrots be paid for, besides growth in tax revenues from development of new industries? The House voted to repeal $16 billion in tax breaks given to the oil and gas industry, shifting the money into programs to boost biofuels, renewable energy and efficiency programs.

Sticks
"Sticks" are regulations and punitive taxes that would increase government oversight of the process of energy technology deployment. Sticks would retard those technological development that could possibly threaten the environment, institute mandates on renewable energy purchases, set high standards on vehicle mileage and emissions reduction, and tax companies that fail to implement emissions improvements.

Some sticks create business opportunities. State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) are an example. These mechanisms require utilities to purchase a certain percentage of their electricity from renewable sources. This tends to create market opportunities that encourage investment in chiefly solar and wind energy systems. California and Florida utilities are embracing these standards, in part because of other carrots and sticks. The Global Warming Act and similar California legislation that puts a cap on the use of coal to produce electricity threaten utility access to these mainstay sources of generation. However, the renewable energy sources can result in electricity that is more costly and more seasonal than current modes of generation, consequently they result in higher costs which are usually passed on to the consumer.

Another factor involved with RPS is that access to these wind and solar energy are regional. For this reason, Southern utilities are bristling at the attempt of Congress to pass a national RPS . They don't have much access to wind and solar energy. Biomass energy could rectify the imbalance because the Southeast is the wood basket of America and wood waste is actually a good source of bioenergy, but biofuel conversion technologies have yet to be employed commercial-scale and are at an early adopter stage of marketing.

The sticks the House Energy Bill contains include:
• Requirements that electric utilities produce 15 percent of electricity from renewable energy sources.
• New efficiency standards for appliances, lighting and building

The Farm Bill also contains -
• Strengthening payment limits for farm subsidies to ensure that people making more than $1 million a year (adjusted gross income) can’t collect conservation and farm program payments.
• Provisions that close loopholes that allow people to avoid payment limits by receiving subsidies through multiple business units.

One stick sought by the Democrats that didn't get passed was a big increase in federal fuel economy standards for all cars and trucks. The auto companies, like GM, have argued that this would cripple their industries because the American public still demands gas guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, the most profitable vehicles they make. Nevertheless, Speaker Pelosi is expected to push to include a Senate provision to raise fuel economy to 35 miles per gallon for cars and trucks by 2020 during deliberations.

What do the experts think about these Bills?
Bob Dinneen, President of the Renewable Fuels Association said this about the Energy Bill - “This bill could be to next generation cellulosic ethanol production what the 2005 energy bill was to grain-based ethanol. To achieve the ambitious goals the American people are calling for, it will require the production of ethanol from all available feedstocks, including corn, corn stover, switchgrass, wood chips and other cellulosic materials. This bill strikes the right chord by requiring that 21 billion of the 36 billion gallon requirement be met by cellulosic ethanol production."

Marchant Wentworth, a legislative representative for the Union of Concerned Scientists says "The Energy Bill saves consumers money, creates jobs and makes a down payment on reducing the threat of global warming."

Even though it satisfies the interests of most farmers, the Farm Bill looks like it might face a Bush veto. In one section Democrats added another "stick". They said they were closing a loophole and cracking down on foreign tax-dodgers, while Republicans called it a massive tax hike that would affect manufacturers that provide millions of jobs in their districts.

"This is an unprecedented move to use a farm bill as a vehicle to increase taxes," said Rep. Adam Putnam of Florida, the No. 3 Republican. "We could have put the House imprint on the farm bill, and now it is veto bait, and that is a tragedy."

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Democrats had narrowed support for farm programs by including the tax measure in the bill. "If there was ever a time when our farm programs needed friends, it is now," he said.

Both bills will now go to the Senate to be merged with their versions.

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August 1, 2007

Biopact: August 2007 Digest

Biopact Blog writes many stories that are relevant to the study of BIOstock, BIOconversion, BIOoutput, and BIOwaste.

Rather than summarize and reprint excerpts from this excellent source of information, a breakdown of each month's most relevant titles is provided in one updated article...

BIOstock...
Dynamotive and Mitsubishi Corporation sign cooperation agreement
Interpellets 2007: conference looks at wood pellets as an alternative to fossil fuels
Technip to engineer biomass power plant that will run on dedicated energy grass
Forest genetics researchers to sequence and catalog conifer genes for future biofuels research
Efficient timber harvester delivers wood chips on the spot, improves biomass logistics
Mitsubishi Corp creates firm to produce biomass pellets
Guide to installing wood pellet heating systems in green buildings
BioWeb launched: new information resource will help develop biobased economy
Volvo releases comprehensive analysis of seven biofuels for use in carbon-neutral trucks

BIOconversion...
U.S. House passes Energy Bill: boost to biofuels, CCS and renewables
Shell and Virent to cooperate on production of hydrogen from biomass
Belgian-Dutch partnership to develop 5MW biocoal project
Japan's RITE develops cellulosic biobutanol technology
Sun Grant Initiative funds 17 bioenergy research projects
Australia's EPA approves largest geosequestration trial, report warns for leakage risks

BIOoutput...
Worldwatch Institute: biofuels may bring major benefits to world's rural poor
Expert: 'net energy' - a useless, misleading and dangerous metric
Researchers: cellulosic biofuels already cost-competitive
Terra preta and the future of energy: the Secret of El Dorado
Volvo releases comprehensive analysis of seven biofuels for use in carbon-neutral trucks

BIOwaste...
Steps to biorefining: new products from biofuel leftovers

Why "Rolling Stone" gathers no moss

"Because it generates heat, not light."

The current issue of Rolling Stone carries a feature article referenced on the cover as The Ethanol Scam and titled as "Ethanol Hurts the Environment And Is One of America's Biggest Political Boondoggles" written by Jeff Goodell.

Putting on my "Jeff Greenfield" hat temporarily, I believe such articles are extremely dangerous - not because the author's arguments aren't worth debating (which Vinod Khosla is ready and willing to do at the drop of a hat) but because it is printed in Rolling Stone magazine.

I can't comment online at the magazine without subscribing (which I am reluctant to do). However, Jeff referenced statements by noted and insightful Chem-E blogger Robert Rapier at R-Squared - with whom I occasionally converse - and he wrote about the Goodell article. So my response to the article are on Robert's site and reprinted here.

.................

There is no bigger threat to developing realistic, technologically sound solutions than to have masses of under-informed trendsters see a political/industry conspiracy while innovations are being worked out. You (Richard Rapier) certainly have seen Big Oil on the receiving end of such conspiracy mongering - same for biomass-to-energy technologies. Doesn't that trouble you?

I have always been a skeptic about the promises offered by producers of cellulosic ethanol using both biochemical and thermochemical processes. Which is why I started writing my blogs on BIOconversion - to shed some light in the midst of all this media-driven heat.

I also hope to influence the direction of these developments by keeping the processes true to the California standards of environmental cleanliness - standards which have been studied and raised significantly during the last two years.

The more I research the subject and attend conferences (see my reviews), the more I see the complexity of the interlocking facets of the problem - which is why you see a Rubik's cube on each of my blog pages.

But I have never been more optimistic about the promise of these technologies to replace a huge percentage of the fossil fuel paradigm while simultaneously mitigating urban and rural air and land pollution and adding to the economic well-being of these depressed regional economies. Why people think a solution has to fix 100% of a problem seems absurd to me. Solutions and their benefits will be regionally determined.

Half of all gasoline sold in the U.S. contains ethanol. It is an additive because it oxidizes gasoline combustion making it cleaner. The accelerated introduction of E85 pumps is also a gradual, scalable solution which can help transition away from our dependence on oil. There may be better alternatives in certain regions of the country.

I admit to having a vested interests in the outcome. Not just because I have a son that I don't want fighting a war in the Middle East in ten years. I am also weary from my asthmatic daughter's constant health battles for clean air and the implications for future generations.

I am working on the logistics part of the feedstock equation (see BIOstock Blog) for Price BIOstock Services. By doing so I am trying to help revive America's farms and forest industries and the sagging logistical infrastructure of our rivers, rails, pipelines, and electrical grids.

There are many solutions to be tried. And if electricity is your solution - great. But you better support biomass-to-energy development because most non-renewable electricity comes from fossil fuels. Regional solar and wind technologies are not going to fill the gap.

More important, I assume you are in favor of the light of reason over the heat of passion. Solving these problems requires research and experimentation. Stoking popular Luddite bias discourages investor interest and gets us nowhere against a corrosive status quo. It is one of the reasons the government subsidies on RD&D are necessary. But public outreach to overcome hot media-fed popular misinformation becomes perhaps the biggest hurdle innovators face.

As one who dabbles in both, I'll take technology over media opportunists any day. At least they are working toward solutions.
................................

To Rolling Stone my fervent plea is... "No mas!"

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July 31, 2007

July 2007 Digest

Conversion Technologies Coast-to-Coast

It may be the heart of the summer to most people but national enthusiasm for emerging energy technologies is not taking a vacation. In early July, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger paid a call on his Florida counterpart, Governor Charles Crist calling him "a new action hero" for taking a stand against emission of greenhouse gases from utilities and the auto industry. Taking the lead from "The Governator" Crist signed several new executive orders committing Florida to setting new clean energy standards.

This was followed by a Florida's well-planned Farm to Fuel Summit hosted by Commissioner Charles Bronson of the state's Department of Agriculture. Highlights of the event included several announced purchase agreements between utilities and energy developers for citrus waste, energy crops, and woody biomass-to-energy power facilities.

Meanwhile, the California Resource Recovery Association held its Navigating to Zero Waste Conference and Expo in San Pedro, California. Organizers scheduled speeches by several proponents for advanced waste-to-energy programs while raising the bar on what could be accomplished to save energy through waste source reduction.

It was a good sign for the nation that each state will feed and compete with each other to advance their energy and environmental agendas.

Below are links to stories that made July 2007 memorable.

BIOstock Blog--------------
· Range Fuels will break ground this summer
· Senator decries inertia on controlling wildfires
· Southern utilities lobby against federal RPS legislation
· Food cost studies compare impact of corn vs. energy price increases
· Student teaches biofuel professionals
· Florida's Farm to Fuel Summit: A Californian's View

BIOconversion Blog--------------
· The Biorefinery Concept Today

BIOoutput Blog--------------
· A scientific assessment of plug-in hybrids

BIOwaste Blog--------------
· Envirepel: Gasified waste-to-electricity in San Diego
· Biomass and BioWaste Conference in Pittsburg this September
· Navigating to Zero Waste in California

Each month we provide a similar breakdown of article titles from our favorite "companion" site - Biopact Blog. This list is kept current and is accessible in the right hand column of each of the three blogs.

Please forward a link to this digest to anyone you know who would be interested in keeping track of change that will affect us all. They can add their name to the mailing list on the BioConversion Blog.

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July 17, 2007

July 15, 2007

The Biorefinery Concept Today

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that world biofuel output will double between 2006 to 2012. That is the primary finding from its recently published Medium-Term Oil Market Report.

According to an article from Biopact based on the report findings:

Technology for significant production of second generation biofuels based on lignocellulosic feedstocks isn't expected by the IEA to come into play by end of the 2012 outlook period.

That is certainly true. But in the meantime, considerable R&D is taking place internationally leading to the deployment of a promising number of pilot, demonstration, and commercial-scale biorefineries.

No agency knows this better than the IEA's own IEA Bioenergy group:
IEA Bioenergy is an organisation set up in 1978 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) with the aim of improving cooperation and information exchange between countries that have national programmes in bioenergy research, development and deployment.

On April 25, 2007, the IEA Bioenergy group's annual meeting, ExCo59, was held in Golden, Colorado bringing the world's experts to the home of the U.S. National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) to discuss the current status of emerging biorefinery technologies. BioPact has provided a real service by summarizing contents of the information presented at ExCo59.


Thankfully, these Biorefinery Concept presentations have been posted as downloadable PDFs on the IEA Bioenergy website. Several of these presentations are identical to those given at the recent BBI Fuel Ethanol Workshop & Expo. Those slides were only distributed to attendees.

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July 1, 2007

Biopact: July 2007 Digest

Biopact Blog writes many stories that are relevant to the study of BIOstock, BIOconversion, BIOoutput, and BIOwaste.

Rather than summarize and reprint excerpts from this excellent source of information, a breakdown of each month's most relevant titles is provided in one updated article...

BIOstock...
New biodiversity data access portal launched
Revolution in the kitchen: 5000 Indian rural households receive smokeless biomass pellet stove
'Plants for the Future' technology platform presents plan for European bioeconomy
OECD-FAO Outlook: growing biofuel demand underpinning higher agriculture prices
Satellite survey links tropical park fires with poverty and corruption
Study of energy crops shows miscanthus twice as productive as switchgrass
Simulated crop provides answer to irrigation issues
China to boost forest-based bioenergy, helps win battle against desertification
Report: community forest enterprises drive sustainable forestry, but stifled by red tape

BIOconversion...
Nanosphere catalyst could improve biodiesel production
Investigating life in extreme environments may yield applications in the bioeconomy
Highlights from the International Conference on Biofuels (Day 1)
Sweden calls for the creation of a 'biopact' with the South - Highlights from the International Conference on Biofuels (Day 1, part 2)
Texas launches Bioenergy Strategy
An in-depth look at biorefinery concepts
EU and China agree on joint development of knowledge-based bioeconomy
Scientist skeptical of algae-to-biofuels potential - interview
Report: the future of biofuels is not in corn, better alternatives available
Gevo receives funding from Virgin Fuels and Khosla Ventures to make biobutanol
World sugar prices keep falling, despite ethanol boom

BIOoutput...
EU Environment ministers approve reductions in car emissions, divided over implementation
Syntroleum to deliver bio-based synthetic jet fuel to U.S. Department of Defense
IEA forecasts world biofuel output to double from 2006 to 2012
Survey Finds Strong Support Among Voters for Mandatory Auto Fuel Efficiency Increases

BIOwaste...
FPL Energy teams up with Citrus Energy to make cellulosic ethanol from citrus waste

June 30, 2007

June 2007 Digest

Vision plus Collaboration Form a Sustainable Industry

"Renewable Energy promotes world peace."

Those are the words of BBI International CEO Mike Bryan as he opened the Fuel Ethanol Workshop (FEW) conference in St. Louis last week. What followed was two days spent assimilating the industry's breathtaking advances this year while inspiring multi-sector collaboration and environmental sustainability commitment for the future.

The location's landmark "Gateway Arch"
was emblematic of the overarching character of the renewable biofuels industry - powerful yet clean, visionary yet achievable, classic yet romantic, inspirational yet built on a firm foundation melding science and innovation.

Society expects many interconnected industries to deliver alternatives that will break the nation's addiction to oil while mitigating greenhouse gases - cleaner energy production techniques, new low emissions vehicles, and new environmental stewardship programs to name a few.

The fossil energy paradigm was not built in a year, nor will the renewable energy paradigm be. But the explosive rush of collaborative workshops and expos will shorten the time of deployment by fostering a strong network of communication between active participants.

Below are links to stories that made June 2007 memorable.

BIOstock Blog--------------
· Forest certification programs: FSC, SFI, and Tree Farm
· Salvaging wood from natural disasters
· Nexterra Gasifies Wood Residue-to-Fuel

BIOconversion Blog--------------
· U.S. Congress unanimous - "Make 25x'25 happen!"
· Diversa and Celunol merge diversified enzyme portfolios
· U.S. D.O.E. funds 3 Bioenergy Research Centers
· U.S. D.O.E./E.I.A. International Energy Outlook 2007
· Fuel Ethanol Workshop promotes vision and collaboration

BIOoutput Blog--------------
· U.S. Congress introduces Federal RPS legislation
· Bioethanol or Biodiesel - Which is better?
· Pipeline research for ethanol transport
· Ethanol Boosting Systems for Automobiles
· GM's "green image" challenge in L.A.

BIOwaste Blog--------------
· Green Waste Gasified to Electricity in CA

Each month we provide a similar breakdown of article titles from our favorite "companion" site - Biopact Blog. This list is kept current and is accessible in the right hand column of each of the three blogs.

Please forward a link to this digest to anyone you know who would be interested in keeping track of change that will affect us all. They can add their name to the mailing list on the BioConversion Blog.

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Fuel Ethanol Workshop promotes vision and collaboration

The 2007 Fuel Ethanol Workshop was informative, thought provoking, and inspirational. Its scope was very broad. While enumerating the many benefits of a robust renewable energy paradigm, it also sought to promote greater collaboration between capitalism and environmentalism. It sought to stretch the range of feedstock beyond corn to cellulosic raw materials. And it provided many opportunities for attendees, embarked on a globally important quest, to meet and learn from each other how to achieve their goals.

Gateway to the Future

Symbolically, the choice of venue couldn't have more appropriate. It was held at the America's Center just west of St. Louis' inspirational Gateway Arch. Millions marvel at the futuristic elegance of its gleaming structure.

Between the vaulting legs of the arch is the underground Jefferson National Expansion Memorial - a contemporary reminder of the pioneering American spirit and its tireless urge to explore. In 1803 Thomas Jefferson oversaw the Louisiana Purchase that doubled the size of the country. He predicted it would take "a thousand years to settle." It took less than a hundred. This demonstrates that even a visionary as prodigious as Jefferson can dramatically underestimate the character and energy of his countrymen and the draw such vision represents to people around the world - many of whom immigrated to settle in the new territory. We are clearly at the gateway to a new era for emerging technologies that will transform the world energy paradigm and impact the exercise of freedom everywhere.

Building a globally important industry

The sense that biofuels companies are not just on the threshold of forming a globally important industry but also of insuring the humanitarian sustainability of future generations was highlighted during the opening session. BBI International hosts the conference and its CEO, Mike Bryan spoke eloquently to the attendees about the importance of the renewable fuels quest in global terms:

You are here to build an industry.

You represent a stronger economy - not just a stronger rural economy, but also a stronger urban economy because a rising tide raises all ships.

You also represent energy independence and energy security. Renewable energy promotes world peace. A new age in energy. When the oil wells and the oil refineries of today are nothing more than rusted relics of a past generation, renewable energy will continue to supply clean domestically produced energy not only to this country but also to countries all around the world.

We hope that soon, someday soon, we no longer will go to war over oil and that it is just simply a faded memory.

The need for both capitalism and environmentalism

Bryan was equally passionate when he spoke about the need for capitalists and environmentalists to work together:
You represent a cleaner environment. There’s been a lot of discussion over the years about capitalism and the environmentalism. They never seem to have gotten together, have they? That needs to change. We need to work with environmentalists.

You know what? Wealth creates pollution. Wealth needs to solve the pollution problem in this world. Capitalism alone is haughty, environmentalism alone is weak. But when we combine the two together we have something that can actually change the world.

It's okay to make money, it's okay to be profitable, that's a good thing. But as capitalists, as people who are in business to generate revenue and generate profit, we need to think about how we can create a better environment. We always need to be thinking about how we can collaborate with the environmental movement around the world.

To emphasize the importance of the environmental message, the keynote address was presented by Karen Coshof from Stonehaven Productions, Executive Producer of The Great Warming, a documentary about the threat of global warming and the need for "enlightened corporations, religious institutions, environmental and political leaders to recognize our moral responsibility to be stewards of the Earth today and for future generations."
Our time to stabilize global climate is shrinking fast. You are all working to move the world to a new and, I hope, a more sustainable energy paradigm. When you make your decisions and talk to each other over the next few days, factor in your children's future because failure is not an option.

Expanding the role of renewable biofuels

Bob Dinneen, President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association reflected on the immense change that has taken place over the last few years when he said:
50% of the nation's fuel is blended with ethanol. Every single gallon of gasoline sold in New York and California is blended with ethanol. Every single gallon of gasoline sold in Houston, Texas - where big oil executives have to drive to work each day on your fuel - is testament to how far we have come. But we surely have a long way to go.

We have to remind people that technology is not stagnant – that we are going to get greater and greater yields from an acre of corn. That technology is going to allow us to satisfy demand for grain used in feed, fuel, and fiber throughout this country.

We need to get the message out that... the price of gasoline has a far greater impact on consumer food prices than does a bushel of corn.

A recent poll that was done revealed that more than three out of every four Americans believe we need to be doing much more. We need to be maximizing production and use of renewable fuels like ethanol.

Congress has got that message. Congress saw what the Renewable Fuel Standard has done for our industry.

Diversifying ethanol feedstock

One way to maximize production of renewable fuels is to incorporate the use of a greater range of biomass feedstock. Poet President Jeff Broin announced a new project that will use corn cobs and corn fiber as the feedstock for their commercial cellulosic ethanol production facility that will be jointly funded with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

Numerous workshops shed light on advancements in cellulosic biomass conversion into ethanol. Of the six D.O.E. "Section 932" award winners, four made presentations about their processes including Abengoa, Poet, Alico (and their technology partner, BRI), and BlueFire. However, other workshops dealt with issues that were important to all ethanol production processes.

Workshop 3 dealt with logistics and the transportation grid that currently exists to service the growing industry. Sandra Dearden, President of Highroad Consulting, Ltd. made a strong point during her presentation on "Integrating Transportation: Planning for Future Growth" that rail service is not on a trajectory that will adequately service the anticipated needs of the ethanol industry. When asked about future volume capacity, Sandra responded:
The thing that scares me the most is that the freight volume is likely to double within the next 14 years. It takes two years for a railroad to receive an ordered locomotive. It takes about ten months to get someone trained to be on a crew to be on a locomotive. And, at the same time, we don't have the infrastructure capacity. The railroads have gone to the House (of Representatives) and asked for assistance for funding additional railroad infrastructure.

The current status of Carbon Credits

Workshop 7 was titled "Greenhouse Gases: Capitalizing on Carbon Credits." Should a cap and trade mechanism be fully implemented nationwide, the value of GHG emissions is estimated to represent $50-$300 billion dollars by 2020 (US Congressional Budget Office). Keeping abreast of the carbon credit systems that are developed may spell the difference between survival and bankrupcy for many developers.

How can we use carbon credits to provide incentives for responsible industry behavior without undermining the financial stability of existing leveraged corporations? If a carbon credit system is used, what input will be taken into account? The answers will tend to be regionalized state-by-state. In the meantime, experts are developing tools to calculate the value of carbon credits based on a complex set of data input. Once of these is the BEACCON model, implemented in Excel®. which is free to download from http://lifecycleassociates.com/beaccon.php.
The BEACCON (Biofuels Emissions and Cost Connection) model allows ethanol producers to evaluate the potential impacts on production costs of the global warming intensity (GWI) of different biofuel production pathways. Version 1.0 of the model focuses on ethanol plants with a capacity range between 50 and 100 million gallons per year.

Another computational model is being developed by the University of Nebraska called the Biofuel Energy Systems Simulator (BESS). It will be released July 20th for free download.
The Biofuel Energy Systems Simulator (BESS) model provides a holistic “cradle-to-grave” analysis of energy use and net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the entire biofuel production cycle—including crop production, ethanol conversion, and by-product use and waste disposal via associated cattle feedlots and anaerobic biodigestion systems. The model estimates the net energy efficiency and net GHG emissions for each component of the biofuel production life cycle and also for the integrated system as a whole.

James Murphy of Carbon Green, LLC was on hand to provide an introduction to the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) - which trades Carbon Financial Instrument™ (CFI) contracts.
CCX members make a voluntary but legally binding commitment to meet annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. Those who reduce below the targets have surplus allowances to sell or bank; those who emit above the targets comply by purchasing CCX CFI contracts.

Notably, the U.S. Congress recently passed an appropriations bill amendment instructing the House to join the CCX - which requests that the House Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) purchase Carbon Financial Instruments from American projects through the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) to offset carbon produced by all House operations after renewable energy and efficiency improvements are made.


New Technologies

The new technologies addressed by FEW workshops this year included four of the six D.O.E. "Section 932" award winners mentioned earlier.

Bob Wooley, Principal Engineer from NREL/DOE gave an illuminating presentation on how his organization is helping the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plant and cultivate emerging technology development in the private sector. He talked about the dynamics and economics for expanding the fuel supply chain with a focus on two complex areas of the problem - feedstock supply and capital investment. They have developed a model called STELLA™ to understand how DOE activities might influence the ultimate ethanol deployment and explore what else (outside of DOE) might be needed to reach the desired deployment levels.

Other technologies included a DOE look at the emissions and performance characteristics of the SAAB 9-5 BioPower automobile and how the Chippewa Valley Ethanol Company is developing plans to displace over 90% of its fossil fuel usage with renewable biomass.

Hurdles to Deployment of E85

The Ethanol Promotion and Information Council (EPIC) held a special workshop on E85 during which their Director of Operations, Robert White, updated information about Underwriters Laboratories (UL) who rescinded E85 pump and pump component certification in September and October of 2006. This sent a chill through the distribution service industry for ethanol. There is now a process that is being developed to create standards for submitting equipment for certification and UL approval.

Back in February 2007 UL did complete a survey of dispensers across the country that concluded that E85 equipment has not resulted in any significant safety problems. A separate Brazil survey concluded in May 2007 rendered similar results. UL is now working inhouse to develop new standards which it hopes will be completed and published by December of 2007. It is anticipated that it will take a while to pass certification and it will not be until the fourth quarter of 2008 that there will be UL certified dispensers on the street.

The consequences have not completely curtailed deployment of pumps because some manufacturers are providing special warrants on safety and security in the absence of UL certification. However, this is an issue for the big box retailers (WalMart and others) and in Hawaii a program to install 25 E85 pumps was halted by the Fire Marshal because of the lack of UL approval.

Carl Donges from Clean Fuels USA talked about some equipment that his company represents that will have a big impact on how ethanol is dispensed now and will in the future. Texas based CleanFUEL USA has established itself as the leading global manufacturer of certified and approved alternative fuel dispensing equipment for both propane (LPG) and E85 and has expanded its role as an industry leader by providing comprehensive alternative motor fuel programs for fleet managers throughout the world.

Not only do they currently market dedicated pumps for dispensing ethanol but they also sell retrofitting kits and even pumps that blend different percentages of pure ethanol with standard gasoline at the dispensing station.

During Workshop 14 Jim Stewart of BRI made a presentation promoting the conversion of waste-to-ethanol using a thermochemical process. He used the occasion to launch a scathing attack accusing Big Oil companies of attempting to control renewable energy development so as to mitigate the possible negative impacts on their established businesses:
The public face of Big Oil appears to be committed to a transition between petroleum to alternative energy. But its private face is providing funds to educational institutions and think tanks that are generating unfavorable studies or otherwise opposing ethanol as a substitute for gasoline - and in subtle ways Big Oil is taking other steps to slow its expansion.

He then listed several high profile instances that he felt demonstrated the conflict of interest between the funding of educational institutions by Big Oil and subsequent research announcements detrimental to ethanol's image in the press. It is a touchy subject to be addressed at FEW because the oil companies, with their refineries that blend ethanol into their gasoline to meet state standards, are the primary customers of ethanol producers.


The promise of renewable fuel development will depend upon the collaboration of competing stakeholder interests (academia, business, social, environmental, and political) while correcting public misperceptions as reported in the press. The call is being raised for insightful leaders who can see and develop the common ground shared by these many sectors. Clearly, not all sectors were equally represented at FEW 2007, but the workshops stimulated multi-interest discourse and provided a forum for industry leaders to learn from each other.

For more information, see BBI's own publication for a Ethanol Producer recap

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June 26, 2007

U.S. D.O.E. funds 3 Bioenergy Research Centers

The U.S. Department of Energy announced today the formalization and funding of three individual research centers throughout the country devoted to making advances on biomass conversion technologies for the creation of renewable energy.

The establishment of the bioenergy research centers culminates a six-year effort by DOE’s Office of Science to lay the foundation for breakthroughs in systems biology for the cost-effective production of renewable energy. In July 2006, DOE’s Office of Science issued a joint biofuels research agenda with the Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy titled Breaking the Biological Barriers to Cellulosic Ethanol. The report provides a detailed roadmap for cellulosic ethanol research, identifying key roadblocks and areas where scientific breakthroughs are needed.

Here is more of their press release:

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Energy Department Selects Three Bioenergy Research Centers for $375 Million in Federal Funding
Basic Genomics Research Furthers President Bush’s Plan to Reduce Gasoline Usage 20 Percent in Ten Year

U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel W. Bodman today announced that DOE will invest up to $375 million in three new Bioenergy Research Centers that will be located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee; Madison, Wisconsin; and near Berkeley, California. The Centers are intended to accelerate basic research in the development of cellulosic ethanol and other biofuels, advancing President Bush’s Twenty in Ten Initiative, which seeks to reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 20 percent within ten years through increased efficiency and diversification of clean energy sources. The Department plans to fund the Centers for the first five years of operation (Fiscal Years 2008-2013).
“These Centers will provide the transformational science needed for bioenergy breakthroughs to advance President Bush’s goal of making cellulosic ethanol cost-competitive with gasoline by 2012, and assist in reducing America’s gasoline consumption by 20 percent in ten years,” Secretary Bodman said. “The collaborations of academic, corporate, and national laboratory researchers represented by these centers are truly impressive and I am very encouraged by the potential they hold for advancing America’s energy security.”

To bring the latest tools of the biotechnology revolution to bear to advance clean energy production, the Centers will be supported by multidisciplinary teams of top scientists. A major focus will be on understanding how to reengineer biological processes to develop new, more efficient methods for converting the cellulose in plant material into ethanol or other biofuels that serve as a substitute for gasoline. This research is critical because future biofuels production will require the use of feedstocks more diverse than corn, including cellulosic material like agricultural residues, grasses, poplar trees, inedible plants, and non-edible portions of crops.

The Centers will bring together diverse teams of researchers from 18 of the nation’s leading universities, seven DOE national laboratories, at least one nonprofit organization, and a range of private companies. All three Centers are located in geographically distinct areas and will use different plants both for laboratory research and for improving feedstock crops.

The mission of the Bioenergy Research Centers will lie at the frontier between basic and applied science, and will maintain a focus on bioenergy applications. These Centers aim to identify real steps toward practical solutions regarding to the challenge of producing renewable, carbon-neutral energy. At the same time, the Centers will be grounded in basic research, pursuing alternative avenues and a range of high-risk, high-return approaches to finding solutions. To some degree, one key to the Centers’ success will be their ability to develop the more basic dimensions of their research to a point that can easily transition to applied research.

The Department’s three Bioenergy Research Centers will include:
The DOE BioEnergy Science Center led by the DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The Center Director will be Martin Keller, and collaborators include: Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia; DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado; University of Georgia in Athens, Georgia; Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire; and the University of Tennessee, in Knoxville, Tennessee.

The DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center will be led by the University of Wisconsin in Madison, Wisconsin, in close collaboration with Michigan State University in East Lansing, Michigan. The Center Director will be Timothy Donohue, and other collaborators include: DOE’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington; Lucigen Corporation in Middleton, Wisconsin; University of Florida in Gainesville, Florida; DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee; Illinois State University in Normal, Illinois; and Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa.

The DOE Joint BioEnergy Institute will be led by DOE’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The Institute Director will be Jay Keasling, and collaborators include: Sandia National Laboratories; DOE’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; University of California - Berkeley; University of California - Davis; and Stanford University in Stanford, California.

Read additional information on DOE’s biofuels initiatives

Additional information is available on the Department’s three Bioenergy Research Centers and the Department’s Genomics Research Programs.


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June 21, 2007

Diversa and Celunol merge diversified industrial enzyme portfolios

Two dynamic cellulosic ethanol development companies have completed their merger transaction and are now renamed "Verenium Corporation." Both companies received investment backing by Khosla Ventures.

Massachusetts-based Celunol has distinguished itself as an innovator of a bacterial fermentation process for the conversion of glucose to ethanol. They have been participating in the commercial-scale development of wet bioconversion facilities using wood scraps as feedstock in Osaka, Japan and a demonstration plant in Jennings, Louisiana for the bioconversion of sugar cane bagasse (shown in picture).

San Diego-based Diversa is best known for its development of enzymes to convert pre-treated cellulosic biomass economically to mixed sugars – a critical step in the process of biofuel production. They claim to possess the world’s broadest array of enzymes derived from bio-diverse environments as well as patented DirectEvolution® technologies (state-of-the-art gene evolution technologies that enable the optimization of proteins at the DNA level).

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Diversa and Celunol Complete Merger to Create Verenium Corporation, a Leader in the Emerging Biofuels Industry

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. and SAN DIEGO, June 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Diversa Corporation (Nasdaq: DVSA) and Celunol Corp. announced today that they have completed their previously-announced merger transaction to create a new leader in the global biofuels industry. The combined company, which has been renamed Verenium Corporation, possesses a growing portfolio of specialty enzyme products and unique technical and operational capabilities designed to enable the production of low-cost, biomass-derived sugars for a multitude of major industrial applications. The most significant near-term commercial opportunity for Verenium will be the large-scale commercial production of cellulosic ethanol derived from multiple biomass feedstocks. In connection with the corporate name change, the Company has also changed its NASDAQ ticker symbol from "DVSA" to "VRNM" and will begin trading under the new ticker symbol effective June 21, 2007.

Stockholders of both companies approved the merger and merger-related proposals earlier today, and all regulatory approvals and closing conditions have been satisfied.

"We are pleased that our respective shareholders have approved our merger and believe their support reinforces our belief in the compelling investment proposition afforded by this transaction," said Carlos A. Riva, President and Chief Executive Officer of Verenium. "After several months of diligent integration planning between the two companies, we are excited to become a single organization and are confident that the transaction represents a unique opportunity for our partners, employees, and shareholders."

"Verenium is now positioned to be a vertically-integrated leader in the rapidly-evolving worldwide biofuels industry through the unique combination of assets, technologies, and personnel resulting from this merger. We believe that commercial success in this industry requires broad R&D capabilities and asset development expertise, which we have now brought together within one, highly-focused company, Verenium Corporation."

Verenium begins operations with numerous unique attributes, including:
• Fully-integrated, end-to-end capabilities in pre-treatment, novel enzyme development, fermentation, engineering, and project development;
• One of the only operational cellulosic ethanol pilot plants in the United States;
• A 1.4 million gallon-per-year demonstration-scale facility, currently under construction, to produce cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane bagasse and specially-bred energy cane;
• A diverse and growing portfolio of commercialized industrial enzyme products; and
• Over 300 issued or in-licensed patents for its technologies and processes, as well as over 450 pending patents.

Verenium will be structured and managed as three distinct, but interdependent, organizational units: Specialty Enzymes Business Unit, Biofuels Business Unit, and Research and Development.

1. The Specialty Enzymes Business Unit currently generates commercial revenue from multiple sources, including industrial enzyme product sales, technology licenses, strategic partnerships, and government grants.

2. The Biofuels Business Unit will be primary focused on the commercial-scale production and sale of cellulosic ethanol from company-managed production facilities throughout the US, as well as strategic partnerships and related revenue arrangements around the world.

3. The Research and Development organization's primary goal will be to support both Verenium Business Units, as well as various existing strategic collaborative partners. As of March 31, 2007, the Company had cash, cash-equivalents, and short-term investments on hand of approximately $125.5 million, which, together with approximately $20 million received in early April from the exercise of an over-allotment option related to the recent convertible notes offering, it believes to be sufficient to fund operations through at least 2008.

Verenium's Board of Directors will initially consist of nine members, six from Diversa and three from Celunol, including Mr. Riva. The non-employee Board members are: Dr. James Cavanaugh, who will serve as Chairman of the Board of Directors; Peter Johnson; Fernand Kaufmann, Ph.D.; Mark Leschly; Melvin Simon, Ph.D.; Cheryl Wenzinger; Joshua Ruch; and Michael Zak.

The Company's executive management team is being led by Carlos A. Riva, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director, and John A. McCarthy, Jr., Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Verenium will be headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts and have research and operations facilities in San Diego, California; Jennings, Louisiana; and Gainesville, Florida. Due to the complementary nature of the two companies and the level of development activities being pursued, the company anticipates increasing its staff in Cambridge and Jennings, as well as building additional staff over time in San Diego to support the growth of the enzyme business and research and development efforts of the Company.


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June 15, 2007

U.S. Senate - "Make 25x'25 happen!"

Congratulations to all 25x'25 champions and supporters - our collective effort has paid off. This morning the U.S. Senate adopted by unanimous consent the 25x'25 national goal resolution. The following is a press release announcing this achievement.

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BOLD NEW U.S. ENERGY GOAL ADOPTED BY SENATE: 25 PERCENT OF ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES BY 2025

Bipartisan Measure Enjoys Support from Ag, Industry Environmental Leaders

The U.S. Senate today adopted by unanimous consent a resolution calling for a new national renewable energy goal: 25 percent of the nation's energy supply from renewable sources by 2025. The resolution, which builds on a vision developed by a broad coalition of agriculture, forestry, industry, and environmental leaders, was adopted by voice vote as an amendment to the energy legislation currently under consideration on the Senate floor. A final vote on the full Senate energy package is expected next week.

"The 25x'25 resolution stresses the virtue of exploring an all-inclusive renewable energy strategy by emphasizing the need to cultivate energy from all kinds of renewable resources, such as wind, biomass, solar, hydropower and geothermal sources," said lead sponsor, Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO). The 25x'25 vision "is bold and fully attainable. If implemented, it would dramatically improve our energy security, our economy, and our ability to protect the environment and combat global warming," he added.

Salazar, who was joined by 33 other Senate members from both sides of the aisle in supporting the resolution, said 25x'25 "sets a policy goal for our nation" that "complements" the energy package under debate. The goal calls for 25 percent of the nation's energy needs being met with renewable resources from farms, forests and ranches by 2025. The amendment also reinforces the 25x'25 principle that the U.S. agricultural and forestry industries, while producing renewable energy, will continue to produce safe, abundant and affordable food feed and fiber."
J. Read Smith, co-chair of the 25x'25 Steering Committee, expressed the alliance's gratitude to the resolution's sponsors, calling the vote an important first step on the road to a new energy future. "This action demonstrates that policymakers recognize the crucial role that our nation's farms, ranches and forests can play in improving energy security while enhancing the environment and strengthening our economy," Smith said.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), another co-sponsor, said the pending energy legislation "is an appropriate place to include the 25x'25 resolution. The 25x'25 vision sets workable goals for renewable energy production and use that we can all aim for with sensible policies and initiatives." Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), who is also a lead co-sponsor, said "energy security is tied to national security and also means income and economic opportunity for agriculture and rural America. If we are to attain national energy and economic security for our nation, we must reach these aggressive but achievable energy goals." Harkin added, "The 25x'25 plan had very broad consensus support, which helped the Senate incorporate these proposals into our new energy policy."

Co-sponsor, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), said "addressing the climate crisis is one of the greatest challenges America faces today. Any comprehensive strategy to fight climate change must include a strong renewable energy standard in addition to a low carbon fuel standard, raised fuel economy standards, and incentives to promote efficiency. This bipartisan resolution will make an unprecedented goal for producing 25 percent of America's energy from renewable sources by 2025." And co-sponsor, Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) noted that "global oil and natural gas reserves are concentrated in tumultuous regions that include nations hostile to the United States. Our national security and economic prosperity demand that we move to a sustainable energy future. Ambitious targets that help motivate innovation are crucial. I applaud members of the 25x'25 coalition for providing a vision for renewable fuels,"
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), another co-sponsor, said that "in order to ensure our national energy security, America must develop a broad spectrum of renewable energy resources. The agenda of 25x'25 will help this country to meet its 21st century energy needs and ensure reliable and environmentally-friendly domestic energy sources for future generations."

The resolution has the support of more than 500 national, regional and local agricultural, forestry, business, energy, environmental and labor organizations; and more than a third of the nation's governors and 10 state legislatures. A similar resolution (H. Con. Res. 25), is pending in the House of Representatives.

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June 1, 2007

Biopact: June 2007 Digest

Biopact Blog writes many stories that are relevant to the study of BIOstock, BIOconversion, BIOoutput, and BIOwaste.

Rather than summarize and reprint excerpts from this excellent source of information, a breakdown of each month's most relevant titles is provided in one updated article...

BIOstock...
U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy announce new US$ 18 million sollicitation for biomass R & D
Mendel and BP collaborate on grass breeding for cellulosic biofuels
Scientists debate benefits of low-input high-diversity grassland bioenergy systems
Study: soil maintenance needed to ensure sustainability of cellulosic biofuels
Study: greenhouse gas balance of different energy cropping systems
Chile's first CDM project based on biomass avoids 500,000 tons of CO2 emissions
Foss and DuPont launch analytical instrument that estimates ethanol yield potential of grain

BIOconversion...
India's Praj Industries launches biofuel operations in Brazil
Researchers produce ethanol from syngas in carbon nanotubes
Joint Genome Institute announces 2008 genome sequencing targets with focus on bioenergy and carbon cycle
The bioeconomy at work: book looks at current state of biorefining
China EnerSave retrofits coal plants to burn biomass
German consortium starts production of ultra-clean synthetic biofuels
Syntroleum and Tyson Foods to produce ultra-clean synthetic biofuels
UOP to develop biofuel technology for military jets
California universities develop innovative process for thermochemical conversion of biomass

BIOoutput...
German biodiesel industry faces collapse over taxes, US subsidies, competition from the South
Japanese citizens 'keen' on using ethanol to tackle climate change - poll
New York City to heat its buildings with biofuels

May 30, 2007

May 2007 Digest

Tying Energy Efficiency to Renewable Energy

Lost in the rush to develop alternative energy technologies is the obvious value of making energy usage more efficient. As Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute would say, "a watt saved is a watt earned." This can be applied to biofuel usage as well. It is far cheaper to save energy than it is to produce more of it, particularly when existing technologies are so wasteful.

In marked contrast to the oil crisis of the 70's when cars lined up on even or odd license number days to tank up on gasoline and speed limits were held to 55 MPH to conserve energy, there has been little preaching by this administration - or the states for that matter - to slow down and use less. Memorial Day weekend driving plans were little impacted by recent gas price spikes. Auto shows still promote performance over gas use efficiency.

It is highly unlikely that the laudable goals of the 25x'25 Initiative for reducing fossil fuel dependence will be reached if we persist in inefficient usage of our energy resources or, in fact, grow our demand beyond current expectations. Similarly, while developing renewable energy (RE) technologies, energy efficiency (EE) needs to be built into the systems.

In a joint report presented by the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) and the American Council for an Energy-Efficency Economy (ACEEE) case studies are showcased that demonstrate the synergies available when RE and EE are developed together. For installations that have such long lifespans and high capital costs, it is important to address efficiency challenges during early planning.

Here are links to stories that were posted in the BioEnergy BlogRing during May, 2007:

BIOstock Blog--------------
Clean Wood replaces Coal Power Plant in N.H.
U.S. paper & pulp industry assesses its bioenergy future

BIOconversion Blog--------------
Molecular visualization of the bioconversion process
U.S. State Dept. to host 2008 Int'l Renewable Energy Conference
IPCC 4th Assessment: Steps to mitigate climate change
U.S. D.O.E./E.I.A. International Energy Outlook 2007

BIOoutput Blog--------------
Tying Energy Efficiency to Renewable Energy
California's electricity - Phasing out coal
Amory Lovins - RMI and the Hypercar

Each month we provide a similar breakdown of article titles from our favorite "companion" site - Biopact Blog. This list is kept current and is accessible in the right hand column of each of the three blogs.

Please forward a link to this digest to anyone you know who would be interested in keeping track of change that will affect us all. They can add their name to the mailing list on the BioConversion Blog.

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May 21, 2007

U.S. D.O.E./E.I.A. International Energy Outlook 2007

Business Energy Reports publishes a prolific number of excellent research reports that address the "global energy industry" and are available online for purchase. Did I mention that they are pricey? Well they are and it would serve them well to offer a discount based on volume purchases. Still, if you are curious to see one, they do offer a free loss leader called "Market Survey of the Energy Industry" which you receive online if you sign up for their email announcements of new releases.

Occasionally they distribute press releases that announce new reports from other agencies that are available online. This week they featured the U.S. Department of Energy's latest International Energy Outlook 2007 which is published through the Energy Information Administration (EIA) website (see below).

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P R E S S   R E L E A S E

For Immediate Release
Press Contact: Barbara Drazga
Press@EnergyBusinessReports.com
Tel: 800-304-0345
www.energybusinessreports.com


World Energy Use Projected to Grow 57 Percent between 2004 and 2030

Phoenix, AZ –May 21, 2007 – World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent  between 2004 and 2030, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEO2007 shows the most rapid growth in energy demand for nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) especially in non-OECD Asia, where strong projected economic growth drives the increase in energy use.
 
Global energy demand grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural gas prices in the reference case. However, rising oil prices dampen growth in demand for petroleum and other liquids fuels after 2015 and, as a result, reducing their share of overall energy use from 38 percent in 2004 to a projected 34 percent in 2030.  In contrast, the energy shares of natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources are expected to grow over this period.  Liquids consumption is still expected to grow strongly, however, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030. The United States, China, and India together account for nearly half of the projected growth in world liquids use.
 
To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the IEO2007 reference case, supply in 2030 is projected to be 35 million barrels oil equivalent per day higher than the 2004 level of 83 million barrels per day.  Conventional resources account for about 27 million barrels per day of this increase, with a projected 21 million barrels per day increase in production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a 6 million barrels per day increase in non-OPEC countries.  Production from unconventional resources (including biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) increases by nearly 8 million barrels per day and accounts for 9 percent of total world liquids supply in 2030.
 
View Details on Related Reports:
Unconventional Gas Outlook: Resources, Economics, and Technologies 2007
Biomass to Biofuels Market Potential 2007
Commercialization of Coal to Liquids Technology 2007
Gas to Liquids Technology and Market Potential
 
Other EIA report highlights include:
 
* Coal consumption, which grows an average annual rate of 2.2 percent, is the fastest-growing energy source worldwide in the IEO2007 reference case projection, which assumes that existing laws and policies remain in effect through 2030 notwithstanding concerns related to the rising level of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. World coal consumption increased sharply from 2003 to 2004, largely because of a 17-percent increase-on a British thermal unit (Btu) basis-in non-OECD Asia (mainly China and India). With oil and natural gas prices expected to continue rising, coal is an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample coal resources, especially in coal-rich countries like China, India, and the United States. These three countries combined account for 86 percent of the increment in world coal demand by 2030 in the reference case projection.
 
* Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve prospects for nuclear power capacity in many parts of the world, and a number of countries are expected to build new nuclear power plants. World nuclear capacity is projected to rise from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481 gigawatts in 2030.  Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries (including Germany and Belgium) have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some old reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced.
 
* In the IEO2007 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030. From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries grew by almost 10 percent, while emissions in the OECD countries grew by less than 2 percent.  The result of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that 2004 marked the first time in history that emissions from the non-OECD exceeded those from the OECD countries.  Further, because of the expectation that non-OECD countries will rely on fossil fuels to supply much of their future energy demand growth, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries in 2030 are projected to exceed those from the OECD by 57 percent.
 
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